Forecast for 2009
Non-OPEC supply is estimated to
grow by 500 tb/d over the previous
year to average 50.96 mb/d in
2009, following an upward revision
of around 100 tb/d from the
previous month. The revisions, both
positive and negative, were made
in the US, Canada, Mexico,
Norway, UK, Argentina, Brazil,
Colombia, Oman, Congo, Gabon
These were introduced
mainly to adjust for actual
production data, project startup and
ramp-up changes and expectations
of different production
circumstances in various countries. The fourth quarter witnessed the most significant
upward revision of around 220 tb/d, while the second and third quarters experienced
lower positive revisions. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is estimated at
50.95 mb/d, 50.64 mb/d, 50.83 mb/d and 51.42 mb/d, respectively.
Total OECD oil supply in 2009 is
expected to reach 19.54 mb/d, a
decline of almost 60 tb/d compared
to the previous year and an upward
revision of 50 tb/d from last month.
In general, OECD supply
experienced the largest revision in
the second quarter; however, the
third and fourth quarters also
showed considerable revisions,
although some of the positive
revisions were offset by negative
ones. On a quarterly basis, total
OECD supply is estimated at
19.91 mb/d, 19.29 mb/d,
19.34 mb/d and 19.63 mb/d, respectively.
On a regional basis, OECD Western Europe
supply forecast was revised lower, OECD North America production revised up and
Asia Pacific supply remained flat from the previous month. OECD North America oil
supply is now estimated to grow by around 0.23 mb/d over the previous year to average
14.15 mb/d, supported by the healthy growth in US supply. On a quarterly basis, North
America oil supply is estimated at 14.16 mb/d, 13.98 mb/d, 14.19 mb/d and 14.28 mb/d
US oil production is expected to average 7.99 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 480 tb/d
from a year earlier, indicating an upward revision of 33 tb/d from last month. The US
showed the highest annual growth in 2009 compared to all non-OPEC countries, with a
very large disparity (around 0.35 mb/d) to Brazil supply growth (the country with the
second largest expected supply growth in 2009). The considerable volume that came
from new projects during 2009, whether from startups or ramp-ups, strongly supported
growth. Additionally, the return of most shut down production in 2008 due to hurricanes
Gustav and Ike along with an uneventful hurricane season this year further supported
US oil supply gains.
Biofuel production also supported US supply in 2009 and the
percentage of idle capacity continued to shrink as the year progressed. This month’s
upward revision to the US supply forecast came on the back of adjustments to actual
production figures in the third and fourth quarters. New data showed improved
production of NGL’s in the third quarter as well as crude oil in the fourth supported by
the return from maintenance. The US supply forecast retains the possibility of a further
upward revision once more actual data becomes available. According to preliminary
data, US oil production stood at 8.21 mb/d in November, or slightly higher than in the
Canada and Mexico
Oil supply from Canada is anticipated to decrease by 50 tb/d over the previous year to
average 3.20 mb/d in 2009, an upward revision of 31 tb/d compared to a month ago.
The revision affected both second and third quarter supply as new data became
available. Among the factors that supported the revision is the continuing improvement
of output from the Horizon project, where some mechanical failures kept production
below capacity. Additionally, the supply increase of the Foster Creek oil sands project
further enhanced Canadian supply.
Mexico oil supply is forecast to average 2.97 mb/d in 2009, a decline of 0.20 mb/d
compared to last year and a minor upward revision of 10 tb/d from a month ago. The
upward revision came on the back of actual production data in the early part of the
fourth quarter. The actual data showed a higher-than-expected level, especially during
the period when flooding affected production in the Veracruz and Tabasco states.
Oil supply from OECD Western Europe is expected to decline by 0.29 mb/d over the
previous year to average 4.75 mb/d in 2009, indicating a minor downward revision of
27 tb/d from last month. The negative adjustment came from actual production figures
in the third and fourth quarters. OECD Western Europe is expected to have quarterly
supply of 5.11 mb/d, 4.70 mb/d, 4.50 mb/d and 4.72 mb/d, respectively.
Norway oil supply is projected to average 2.34 mb/d in 2009, a drop of 0.12 mb/d from
a year earlier and representing a downward revision of 8 tb/d from the previous month.
The downward revision affected the fourth quarter on the back of preliminary actual
production data and was introduced despite improved output from the Varg field after
the startup of a new well. In addition, the return from maintenance after a shutdown due
to a pipe leak on the Valhall project further supported overall output. However, the
decline of NGL production coupled with reports of lower loading programmes from main
Norwegian North Sea streams required the negative revision. According to preliminary
data, Norway production stood at 2.41 mb/d in November.
Oil production from the UK is forecast to decline by 0.10 mb/d over the previous year to
average 1.47 mb/d in 2009, a downward revision of 15 tb/d from last month. The
downward revision affected the third and fourth quarter supply estimates, mainly to
adjust for actual production data. The third quarter encountered heavier revisions than
the fourth due to summer maintenance. In addition, the report indicated that the
Schiehallion field will remain offline until early next year due to the collision between a
tanker and the field’s FPSO, further supporting the downward revision.
Denmark oil supply is estimated to average 0.27 mb/d in 2009, a minor drop of 10 tb/d
over a year earlier and flat from the previous month. However, minor downward
revisions were introduced to the third and fourth quarter due to reported delays in the
restart of some projects on the back of technical issues.
OECD Asia Pacific oil supply is seen remaining flat with the previous year to average
0.63 mb/d in 2009, unchanged from last month. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply is
estimated to average 0.64 mb/d, 0.61 mb/d, 0.66 mb/d and 0.63 mb/d, respectively.
Australia oil production is expected to average 0.54 mb/d in 2009, a minor increase of
10 tb/d over a year ago and flat from last month. Australia supply experienced a minor
downward revision in the fourth quarter, however this did not affect the annual level.
The healthy supply from actual data offset the startup delay of the Montara oil projects.
Developing Countries (DCs) oil
production is estimated to increase
by 0.15 mb/d over the previous
year to average 12.51 mb/d in
2009, representing an upward
revision of 20 tb/d from last month.
There were some historical
revisions going back to 2007 which
partially explain the stagnant
growth level despite the change in
total volume from the previous
month. The majority of the upward
revision came from the Middle
East, while Africa and Latin
America were steady to declining.
On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs is expected to average 12.48 mb/d,
12.47 mb/d, 12.49 mb/d and 12.60 mb/d respectively.
Other Asia oil supply is anticipated to decrease by 40 tb/d over the previous year to
average 3.71 mb/d in 2009, indicating a minor downward revision of 5 tb/d from last month.
There were positive and negative minor revisions to adjust for actual production data, with
the negative outweighing the positive. Among the countries, only Thailand and Vietnam are
expected to show some growth, while the rest are seen to either remain steady or
experience a decline.
Indonesia oil supply forecast remained steady as the reported minor
decline in actual production data offset the startup of condensate production from the Belut
oil field. The Malaysia oil supply forecast also remained unchanged as the expected
conventional oil production is seen to offset a drop in biofuel production due to poor
margins. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia supply is foreseen to average 3.71 mb/d,
3.70 mb/d, 3.70 mb/d and 3.72 mb/d, respectively.
Oil production from Latin America is believed to grow by 0.23 mb/d over the previous
year to average 4.43 mb/d in 2009, flat from a month earlier. However, there were many
upward and downward revisions to individual supply estimates, but these offset one
another. Argentina oil supply forecast was revised up slightly on the back of improved
production as per updated actual production data. Brazil oil supply forecast – which
showed the second largest growth among all non-OPEC countries – was revised down
slightly to adjust for updated production data in the first three quarters of the year.
Actual production data so far in the fourth quarter remained healthy, however, at the
same time, biofuel production was reported to be lower on the back of a weak sugar
Accordingly, fourth quarter supply estimates remained flat from the
previous month. The supply forecast for Colombia was revised up slightly compared to
last month, due mainly to reported strong production figures supported by the Rubiales
oil field, where production reached 100 tb/d. On a quarterly basis, Latin America supply
is estimated at 4.38 mb/d, 4.41 mb/d, 4.41 mb/d and 4.51 mb/d respectively.
Middle East oil production is seen to decline slightly by 0.01 mb/d over a year earlier to
average 1.66 mb/d in 2009, indicating an upward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous
month. The revision was introduced to Oman oil supply, while other countries in the
region remain unchanged on the back of strong production data. In addition, a historical
revision was experienced in Oman oil supply forecast due to revised actual data for the
previous year. Healthy production levels were supported by enhanced oil recovery
projects that are helping to increase production from the mature fields. On a quarterly
basis, Middle East supply is foreseen to average 1.65 mb/d, 1.65 mb/d, 1.67 mb/d and
1.66 mb/d, respectively.
Oil production from Africa is anticipated to decline by 30 tb/d over a year earlier to
average 2.72 mb/d in 2009, following a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d. Downward
revisions were made to the forecast for Congo and Sudan oil supply on the back of
adjustments to actual production data. However, Gabon supply encountered a minor
upward revision of 5 tb/d due to updated production data. The quarterly distribution
average now stands at 2.73 mb/d, 2.72 mb/d, 2.71 mb/d and 2.70 mb/d respectively.
FSU, Other Regions
Oil supply from the FSU is
expected to increase by 0.36 mb/d
over the previous year to average
12.92 mb/d in 2009, representing
the highest growth among all non-
OPEC groups. The supply estimate
indicates an upward revision of
29 tb/d from last month. The
adjustment was due to actual
production data, which showed
healthy levels of growth from the
main producers. The revision came
only to the fourth quarter. On a
quarterly basis, total oil supply from
the FSU is seen to average
12.63 mb/d, 12.90 mb/d, 12.98 mb/d and 13.18 mb/d respectively.
China oil supply is anticipated to grow slightly by 20 tb/d in 2009 to average 3.86 mb/d
and Other Europe supply is believed to decline slightly by 10 tb/d to average 0.14 mb/d
Oil supply from Russia is expected to average 9.92 mb/d in 2009, an increase of
0.14 mb/d over the previous year, representing an upward revision of 25 tb/d from a
month ago. The revision was introduced to adjust for actual production data that
showed a further increase in production and created a new post-Soviet record. The
revision came only to the fourth quarter supply estimate that is supported by the healthy
production levels reported in October and November, as per preliminary data.
Additionally, the export tax break, applicable to 13 fields and starting from December
2009, is encouraging producers to add more volume to take advantage of the tax break.
The Vankor and Uvat fields were the main supporters of Russian oil production in 2009,
and whether they will continue to offset the decline rate in other mature producing areas
in the coming period with new fields, remains to be seen. On a quarterly basis, Russian
oil supply is seen to average 9.78 mb/d, 9.88 mb/d, 9.97 mb/d and 10.05 mb/d
respectively. Preliminary figures indicate that Russia oil production stood at 10.10 mb/d
in November, higher than in the previous month.
Kazakhstan oil supply is projected to grow by 0.12 mb/d over the previous year to
average 1.54 mb/d in 2009, relatively steady from a month earlier. Preliminary actual
production data indicates a further increase in the fourth quarter; however, more details
should be available before updating the estimate at this stage. Yet, a potential upward
revision in the near future is more likely than a downward one, if no major production
disruptions occur. November preliminary production data shows Kazakhstan supply at
1.63 mb/d, higher than a month earlier.
Oil production from Azerbaijan is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d over a year earlier to
average 1.03 mb/d in 2009, unchanged from the previous month. The ACG field
continues to add volume to Azerbaijan supply, while further export route capacities are
becoming available. The quarterly breakdown now stands at 0.94 mb/d, 1.08 mb/d,
1.02 mb/d and 1.07 mb/d respectively.
China oil production is seen to average 3.86 mb/d in 2009, an increase of 0.2 mb/d
over a year ago, unchanged from the previous forecast. Actual production data remains
supportive of the forecast, despite bad weather affecting production at the Huizhou
area. The quarterly figures are seen to average 3.80 mb/d, 3.86 mb/d, 3.89 mb/d and
3.90 mb/d respectively.
Forecast for 2010
Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 310 tb/d over the previous year to
average 51.27 mb/d in 2010, indicating a minor upward revision of 42 tb/d from a
month ago. The upward revision to total non-OPEC supply came with lower growth
compared to last month’s estimates. There were various upward and downward
revisions introduced to the 2010 supply forecast, with a considerable portion coming
from the changes to the 2009 estimates. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply is
believed to average 51.39 mb/d, 51.05 mb/d, 51.02 mb/d and 51.62 respectively.
Revisions to the 2010 forecast
Most of the revisions to the 2010 supply forecast were due to the changes introduced to
the 2009 supply estimate, which were then carried over to 2010. The forecasts for US,
Norway and UK supply in 2010 were revised slightly due to the changes in 2009. The
Russian oil supply forecast for 2010 was revised up by around 60 tb/d, as healthy
production levels over the last few months are expected to continue to support supply.
However, the forecast for Russia remains associated with some uncertainties as to
whether production will continue to grow or if the new volume will be sufficient to offset
the decline in mature fields.
Additionally, the forecast for Australian oil production was revised down due to
rescheduling of the startup of the Montara project. Colombia experienced an upward
revision due to expected stronger growth of the Rubiales project in 2010. Gabon and
Congo supply forecasts experienced changes to adjust for the level of actual production
data. Canada oil supply forecast was revised up slightly on the back of reports that the
Horizon project will reach 110 tb/d by mid-2010.
OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional oils
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to average 4.77 mb/d in 2009,
representing growth of 450 tb/d over the previous year. In 2010, OPEC NGLs are
expected to average 5.26 mb/d, an increase of 490 tb/d over the current year.
OPEC crude oil production
Total OPEC crude oil production in November averaged 29.08 mb/d, according to
secondary sources, representing growth of around 47 tb/d over the previous month.
Nigeria crude oil production indicated the highest increase in November followed by
Iran, while UAE crude production showed the largest decline. OPEC crude oil
production, not including Iraq, averaged 26.61 mb/d in November, an increase of
44 tb/d from the previous month.
World Oil Supply
Preliminary figures indicate that world oil supply averaged 85.59 mb/d in November, an
increase of 290 tb/d from the previous month. The increase was mainly from non-OPEC
supply which outpaced the rise in OPEC supply. The share of OPEC crude oil
production in global supply remained steady in November at 34%. The estimate is
based on preliminary data for non-OPEC supply, estimates for OPEC NGLs, and OPEC
crude production from secondary sources.