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Africa’s oil supply is forecast to average 2.33 mb/d in 2012, a decline of 0.26 mb/d from 2011, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d from previous month. This revision emanates from the Sudans, due to updated estimated production data. The Sudans’ oil supply is expected to average 0.14 mb/d in 2012, down 0.29 mb/d from the previous year. The decline is driven by the shutdown of South Sudan’s production in January, because Sudan and South Sudan did not agree on transit fees. However, talks have restarted between the two nations and the supply forecast is at risk if it is assumed that South Sudan’s output will remain shutdown in 2012. On a quarterly basis, Africa’s supply is expected to average 2.40 mb/d, 2.29 mb/d, 2.31 mb/d and 2.32 mb/d respectively.
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