 The Middle East’s oil production is seen to increase by 50 tb/d in 2013 to average 1.55 mb/d. This is supported by anticipated growth in Oman, Bahrain and Yemen, while Syria’s oil production is seen to remain steady next year. Oman’s production is expected to rise by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.93 mb/d. This is supported by enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at the Mukhaizna and Harweel developments.
The new volume is seen to more than offset the foreseen declines in mature producing areas. Bahrain’s supply is expected to rise by 10 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.23 mb/d, and this increase will be supported by the Awali project. Yemen’s production is estimated to increase by 30 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.19 mb/d. This is on the assumption that the damaged pipeline will return to operations and that output will be partly restored, starting in the second quarter. Syria’s oil supply is projected to average 0.21 mb/d in 2013, steady from this year. This assumes that a partial return of the shut-down production will begin in the second half of next year.
However, the risk to Yemen’s and Syria’s forecasts remains high, given the ongoing political situation, as well as limited data. The forecast could encounter significant downward revision if the political situation remains unchanged in 2013. On a quarterly basis, the Middle East’s supply in 2013 is expected to stand at 1.51 mb/d, 1.51 mb/d, 1.56 mb/d and 1.62 mb/d respectively.
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