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African oil production in 2013 is forecast to average 2.35 mb/d, an increase of 10 tb/d over 2012. Oil supply from Chad, Congo, Egypt, Gabon and South Africa is expected to remain steady in 2013, with just minor declines of 10 tb/d each. This comes on the back of limited new developments and declines in mature producing areas. Oil supply from Ghana, Uganda and Cameron is forecast to increase in 2013, supported by such new developments as the Jubilee and Dissoni projects. In Ghana, the Jubilee oil project is expected to reach its peak production of 120 tb/d in 2013. The Sudans’ supply is seen to increase by 20 tb/d in 2013, on the assumption that shut-down production will partly restart in the second half of the year. Political risk factors could bring a significant change to the supply forecast, especially from the Sudans. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in Africa in 2013 is estimated to average 2.33 mb/d, 2.32 mb/d, 2.35 mb/d and 2.39 mb/d respectively.
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