Gulf Oil and Gas accountACCOUNT

Oil Market Highlights - September 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170901 9/12/2017, Location: Europe

Share |
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket rose for the second-consecutive month in August to average $49.60/b, representing a gain of $2.67/b or 6%. Year-to-date, the Basket was 30.9% higher at $49.73/b. Crude futures prices also saw gains with ICE Brent increasing 5.5% to $51.87/b and NYMEX WTI up 3.0% at $48.06/b. Year-to-date, crude futures prices were more than 20% higher. During the week of 29 August money managers cut WTI futures and options net long positions by 105,671 contracts to 147,303 lots, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Money managers slightly reduced Brent futures and options net length contracts by 1,296 to 416,551 lots during the same week.

World Economy
World economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the growth forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 3.4%. OECD growth has performed better-than-anticipated in the current year – particularly the Euro-zone and to some extent in the US – and is now forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. India is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018. Brazil and Russia are both forecast to expand their recovery to 0.5% and 1.5% in 2017, respectively, followed by growth of 1.5% and 1.4% in 2018. China is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018.

World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.42 mb/d after an upward revision of around 50 tb/d. The adjustment mainly reflects better-than-expected data from OECD region for the 2Q17, particularly OECD Americans and Europe, as well as China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.35 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d from the previous report. This reflects higher growth expectations for OECD Europe and China.

World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from the last month due to offsetting revisions in Kazakhstan and US supply. In 2018, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, following a downward revision to Russia and Kazakhstan, totalling 0.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.49 mb/d in 2018, representing an increase of 0.18 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In August, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.76 mb/d.

Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in August. In the US, margins rose amid expectations for a product supply shortfall in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, coupled with already firm domestic demand, which supported product crack spreads. In Europe and Asia, product markets were supported by supply outages in the US, which encouraged higher arbitrage volumes, as well as healthy seasonal demand, which helped lift refinery margins.

Tanker Market
Average spot freight rates in August followed the typical trend seen in the summer months, with a weakening on most reported routes. Dirty spot freight rates fell, influenced by high vessel availability, as new deliveries were reportedly added to the fleet, putting pressure on an already oversupplied tonnage market. Clean tanker rates declined on average, influenced by lower rates registered on the West of Suez, despite a temporary hike in rates in the US due to Hurricane Harvey.

Stock Movements
Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in July to stand at 3,002 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks were 195 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicate surpluses of around 123 mb and 72 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.9 days in July, some 2.7 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about 0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Accounting, Statistics News in Austria >>

Austria >>  11/21/2017 - Non-OPEC supply in 2018 was revised down by 94 tb/d compared to last month’s analysis to average 58.54 mb/d, and now is expected to grow at a slower p...
Norway >>  11/16/2017 - Preliminary data for September showed that total European stocks fell by 11.8 mb reversing the build of last two months. At 1,133 mb, European stocks ...

Norway >>  11/16/2017 - Kvaerner has been awarded a contract with Repsol Norge AS for the construction of a permanent caisson support structure for the Yme New Development pr...
Austria >>  11/15/2017 - US product markets received very strong support in the previous months on the back of significantly higher US gasoline demand. However, with the end o...

Norway >>  11/15/2017 - Shearwater GeoServices (Shearwater) has been awarded a 3D broadband marine seismic acquisition contract by ONGC for the planned 2017/2018 field season...
Austria >>  11/14/2017 - OPEC crude for 2018 was also revised up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 33.4 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d higher than the 2017 level.


Related Categories: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 

Related Articles: Accounting, Statistics  Acquisitions and Divestitures  Asset Portfolio Management  Economics/Financial Analysis  General  Insurance  Investment  Mergers and Acquisitions  Risk Management 


Austria Oil & Gas 1 >>  2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |

More News

 

Oil & Gas Companies in Austria >>


Related Links

Gulf Oil and Gas
Copyright © Universal Solutions All rights reserved. - Privacy Policy.