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Stock Movements - September 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170911 9/12/2017, Location: Europe

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OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 18.7 mb in July to stand at 3,002 mb, which is around 195 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 123 mb and 72 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.9 days in July, which is 2.7 days higher than the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for August shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 6 mb to stand at 1,310.4 mb, indicating a surplus of 127 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 19.5 mb, while products rose by 13.6 mb. The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories decreased by 5.7 mb in July to stand at 380.6 mb. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 2.1 mb, while product stocks were 7.8 mb lower m-o-m.

OECD
Preliminary data for July shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 18.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,002 mb, which is a reduction for the third consecutive month and is around 103 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but 195 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products fell by 15.3 mb and 3.4 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD America witnessed stockdraws, while OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific saw builds.

OECD commercial crude stocks fell by 15.3 mb m-o-m in July for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 1,494 mb, which is 36 mb below the same time a year ago and around 123 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average. While OECD Americas stocks witnessed a draw, OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific experienced stock builds in commercial crude.

OECD product inventories also fell by 3.4 mb m-o-m in July to stand at 1,508 mb, which is 67 mb below the same time a year ago, but 72 mb above the seasonal norm. OECD Americas witnessed stock draws, while OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific saw stock builds.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 0.4 days in July to stand at 62.9 days, which is 2.4 days less than the same period in 2016, but 2.7 days higher than the latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD Americas had 3.5 more days of forward cover than the historical average to stand at 62.1 days in July. OECD Europe stood 2.9 days higher than the seasonal average to finish the month at 69.0 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a deficit of 0.3 days lower than the seasonal norm, averaging 54.0 days in July.

OECD Americas
Total commercial stocks in OECD Americas fell by 28.2 mb in July for the sixth consecutive month to stand at 1,578 mb, which was 58 mb below a year ago, but 135 mb higher than the seasonal norm. Within the components, crude and products stocks fell by 21.0 mb and 7.2 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

At the end of July, commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas fell, ending the month at 812 mb, which was 29.5 mb below the same time one year ago and 96 mb above the latest five-year average.

The drop in commercial crude stocks was mainly driven by higher refinery runs combined with lower crude imports.

Commercial product stocks in OECD Americas also fell by 7.2 mb, m-o-m, in July, reversing the massive build of the last three months. At 766 mb, they were 28 mb less than the same time one year ago, but 39 mb higher than the seasonal norm. This drop was mainly driven by higher US consumption, especially gasoline demand during driving season.

OECD Europe
OECD Europeís total commercial stocks rose by 5.3 mb in July, ending the month at 1,003 mb, which was 25 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 68 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks rose by 3.0 mb and 2.4 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

OECD Europeís commercial crude stocks rose in July to stand at 434 mb, which was 2.9 mb higher than a year earlier and 34 mb higher than the latest five-year average. This build could be attributed to higher domestic North Sea production as higher refinery throughput went down in July compared to June.

OECD Europeís commercial product stocks also rose by 2.4 mb to end July at 569 mb, which was 27 mb lower than the same time a year ago, but 34 mb higher than the seasonal norm. The build in product stocks could be attributed to lower demand in the European countries.

OECD Asia Pacific
OECD Asia Pacificís total commercial oil stocks rose by 4.1 mb in July to stand at 421 mb, which was 20.7 mb lower than a year ago and 8.4 mb lower than the five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks rose by 2.7 mb and 1.4 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

Crude inventories ended the month of July at 248 mb, which were 9.1 mb below a year ago and 7.5 mb below the seasonal norm.

OECD Asia Pacificís total product inventories ended July at 173 mb, standing 11.5 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 0.8 mb lower than the seasonal norm.

EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for July shows that total European stocks rose by 5.3 mb, following a drop of 13.6 mb in June. At 1,146 mb, European stocks are 21.7 mb, or 1.9%, lower than the same time a year ago but 50.6 mb, or 4.6%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and product stocks went up by 3.0 mb and 2.4 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

European crude inventories rose in July to stand at 490.1 mb, which is 1.9 mb, or 0.4%, lower than the same period a year ago. Compared to the seasonal average, they were 13.6 mb, or 2.9%, higher. The build in crude oil stocks came despite higher refinery throughput as European refiners were running at around 10.6 mb/d in July, which is about 200 tb/d higher than during June.

European product stocks also rose by 2.4 mb m-o-m, ending July at 655.7 mb, which was 19.8 mb, or 2.9%, lower than the same time a year ago and 37.0 mb, or 6.0%, above the seasonal norm. Within products, distillate and naphtha stocks saw builds, while residual fuel oil and gasoline inventories witnessed draws.

Distillate stocks rose also by 3.1 mb in July to end the month at 445.1 mb, indicating a decline of 10.8 mb, or 2.4%, from the same time a year ago, but 39.9 mb, or 9.8%, above the latest five-year average. The surplus was the narrowest since January. However, middle distillate inventories may fall in the coming month because of a shutdown at Shellís 420,000 b/d Pernis refinery, the major regional supplier of middle distillates.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 mb in July, ending the month at 114.4 mb, which was 4.5 mb, or 3.8%, lower than the same time one year ago, and 5.6 mb, or 5.2%, higher than the seasonal norm. Higher demand combined with lower output was behind the drop in gasoline stocks.

Residual fuel oil stocks also fell slightly by 0.1 mb in July to stand at 69.0 mb, which was 8.1 mb, or 10.5%, less than the same month a year ago, and 10.4 mb, or 13.1%, lower than the latest five-year average.

US
Preliminary data for August shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 6 mb, for the third consecutive month to stand at 1,310.4 mb. At this level, they were 57 mb, or 4.2%, lower than the same period a year ago, but 127 mb, or 10.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 19.5 mb, while product stocks rose by 13.6 mb, m-o-m.

Across the months of July and August, there were nine consecutive weeks of crude commercial oil stock draws in the US. This amounts to a total drawdown of over 51 mb, compared to the same period in 2016 when US crude oil stock levels were relatively flat, US commercial stocks rose in the week ending 1 September by 4.6 mb to stand at 462.4 mb. At this level, they were 21.3 mb, or 4.4%, below the level of last year at the same time, but still 79.5 mb, or 21%, above the latest five-year average.

The build in commercial crude stocks was driven by lower refinery crude runs as a result of Hurricane Harvey. Indeed, US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.5 mb/d during the week ending 1 September 2017, about 3.3 mb/d less than the previous week. Refineries operated at 79.7% compared to 96.6% last week. Crude oil imports fell by 820,000 b/d to average 7.1 mb/d and exports also was off by 750,000 b/d to just 150,000 b/d. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 0.8 mb w-o-w during the week ending 1 September, to stand at 58.0 mb.

In contrast, total product stocks rose by 13.6 mb in August m-o-m to stand at 848.1 mb. At this level, they were 36 mb, or 4.1%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 48 mb, or 6.0%, above the seasonal average. Within products, propylene and other unfinished products rose, while major products experienced stock draws.

Shuttering refinery units resulted in a drop of 3.2 mb and 1.4 mb w-o-w in gasoline and distillates inventories. At 226.7 mb, gasoline inventories stood at 3.2 mb or 1.4% below a year ago at the same time, while they remained 11 mb, or 5.1%, above the seasonal norm. During the week ending 1 September 2017, gasoline production decline by 1.1 mb/d, with the total of the decline located in PADD 3 as refiners near the GoM shut operations. Gasoline demand also fell by about 680,000 b/d to average 9.2 mb/d, reflecting slow economic activity.

Distillate stocks stood at 147.8 mb at the end of August, indicating a deficit of 11.8 mb, or 7.4%, over the same period a year ago, and 8.4 mb, or 6.0%, above the latest five-year average. During the week ending 1 September 2017, distillate production fell by 560,000 b/d leading to the drop in distillate stocks w-o-w.

Residual fuel rose by 0.9 mb m-o-m to end August at 34.6 mb, while jet fuel stocks fell by 1.2 mb ending August at 39.1 mb. Both products stocks stood below last year at the same time and less than the five-year average.

The overall impact of Hurricane Harvey on the US market will be very difficult to assess and it will take weeks to analyse the full effects on crude oil production as well on crude and products net imports. One option could be postponing refinery maintenance, which will potentially boost crude runs in the upcoming months and would compensate for the loss.

Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks rose by 8.2 mb in July, reversing the stock-draw of the last two months. At 148.3 mb, they were 7.4 mb, or 4.8%, less than the same time a year ago and 17.6 mb, or 10.6%, below the five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 5.5 mb and 2.8 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose in July to stand at 86.5 mb, which was 6.9 mb, or 7.4%, below the same period a year ago, and 12.9 mb, or 13.0%, below the seasonal norm. The build was driven by higher crude imports, which rose by 540,000 b/d, or 19.3%, to average 3.3 mb/d. However, higher crude throughput limited a further build in crude oil stocks. Crude runs rose by 340,000 b/d, or 12.1%, to stand at 3.2 mb/d.

Japanís total product inventories also rose by 2.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 61.8 mb in July, which was slightly less than the same month in the previous year, but 4.6 mb, or 7.0%, lower than the seasonal norm. Within products, gasoline stocks went down, while others products witnessed a stock-build.

Distillate stocks rose by 1.7 mb in July to stand at 27.2 mb, which was 2.3 mb, or 7.9%, below the same time one year ago, and 2.2 mb, or 7.6%, below the seasonal average. Within the distillate components, jet fuel and kerosene stocks rose by 1.4% and 16.7%, respectively, while gasoil fell by 1.1%, m-o-m.

Total residual fuel oil stocks also rose by 0.4 mb in July to stand at 13.9 mb, which was 0.8 mb, or 6.1% higher than the same period a year ago, but 1.1 mb, or 7.5%, below the latest five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel oil A and fuel B.C rose by 2.8% and 3.4%, respectively. The build in both products was driven by higher output.

In contrast, gasoline stocks fell in July by 0.9 mb to stand at 10.4 mb, which was 0.1 mb, or 1.3%, higher than the same time a year ago, but 1.2 mb, or 10.3%, below the latest five-year average. The fall was driven by higher domestic sales, which rose by 13.0% from the previous month.

China
The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 5.7 mb to settle at 380.6 mb, which is 0.5 mb lower than the previous year. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 2.1 mb, while product stocks were 7.8 mb lower m-o-m.

In July, commercial crude stocks rose by 2.1 mb, for the fourth consecutive month to stand at 233.8 mb, which is 14.7 mb above last year at the same time. This build was driven mainly by lower crude throughput, which declined by 1.3%; however, lower domestic crude imports limited further builds in crude oil stocks.

Total product stocks in China also shrank in July to stand at 146.7 mb, which is 15.2 mb below the same time a year ago. Within products, jet/kerosene witnessed builds, while gasoline and diesel inventories saw declines.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4.9 mb in July to stand at 64.8 mb, which is 3.8 mb lower than the same period a year ago.

Diesel inventories also fell by 3.9 mb in July to stand at 62.5 mb. At this level, diesel stocks are 11.1 mb below a year ago at the same time. The drop in both products was driven by lower gasoline output due to the decline in crude oil throughput.

In contrast, kerosene stocks rose in July by 0.9 mb to stand at 19.5 mb, which is 0.3 mb lower than the same time last year.

Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Singapore
At the end of July, product stocks in Singapore rose by 6.4 mb to stand at 49.9 mb, which is 5.3 mb, or 9.5%, below the same period a year ago. Within products, all products witnessed stock builds.

Middle distillate and light distillate stocks rose in July by 2.7 mb and 2.2 mb to stand at 13.2 mb and 13.2 mb, respectively. The stocks build in both products was driven by higher imports to the region. Both product stocks remained below the same time one year ago.

Residual fuel oil stocks rose by 1.5 mb in July for the second consecutive month. At 23.5 mb, fuel oil stocks stood at 3.1 mb, or 11.8%, lower than the same period a year ago.

Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in ARA fell by 2.4 mb in July to end the month at 41.7 mb, which is 5.7 mb, or 12.1%, lower than at the same time a year ago. Within products, the picture was mixed, gasoline and fuel oil stocks went up, while gasoil and jet oil inventories saw a drop.

Gasoline and fuel oil rose by 0.3 mb and 0.4 mb in July to stand at 7.6 mb and 6.9 mb, respectively. Fuel oil stocks remained 1.5 mb, or 28%, above the same time a year ago, while gasoil stood at 2.9 mb, or 27%, below last year at the same time.

Gasoil and jet oil inventories fell by 1.1 mb and 0.6 mb in July to stand at 20.6 mb and 4.5 mb, respectively. Gasoil stocks stood at 3.4 mb, or 14%, below the same time a year ago, while jet oil stocks remained at 0.7 mb or 14% less than the same time a year ago.

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