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Balance of Supply and Demand - September 2017

Source: OPEC_RP170912 9/12/2017, Location: Europe

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Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about 0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Balance of supply and demand in 2017
Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 was revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previous report driven mainly by the upward revision in demand. Within the quarters, the second quarter was revised up by 0.3 mb/d, while the first, third and fourth quarters were revised up each by 0.2 mb/d. As a result, OPEC crude is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d from the 2016 level. The first and the second quarters increased by 0.9 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively, while the third and fourth quarters are expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively.

Balance of supply and demand in 2018
Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 was revised up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous month. Within the quarters, the first quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while the second, third and fourth quarters were revised up by 0.5 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively. OPEC crude is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, which is around 0.2 mb/d higher than the 2017 level. The first quarter is expected to increase by 0.4 mb/d, while the second and the third quarters are expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively. The fourth quarter is estimated to remain unchanged compared to the same quarter in 2017.

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