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OECD
OECD crude oil imports in September averaged 28.62 mb/d, indicating a decline of 1.75 mb/d or 5.7% compared to the previous month according to the latest published data. September crude oil imports were also 6.5% lower than a year earlier. Lower OECD crude oil imports in September are driven by lower imports by countries such as the USA, down by 18.3%, and Japan, down by 2.5% from the previous month, which offset increases in France and Italy. For the first nine months of 2008, OECD countries imported an average of 30.25 mb/d, slightly lower than the average crude oil imports during the same period last year of around 30.50 mb/d. During the first nine months there was no annual growth in imports and with the current pessimistic economic outlook, especially in the OECD area, we could see a negative annual growth around 0.8% consolidating towards the end of the year.
The decline in OECD’s crude oil imports in September is attributed mainly to lower imports from outside the OECD. OECD countries imported on average 22.66 mb/d of crude oil from outside the OECD area in September, indicating a decline of 1.39 mb/d or 5.8% compared to the previous month. The decline is mainly attributed to lower crude oil imports from Nigeria by 354,000 b/d, Kuwait by 334,000 b/d, and Venezuela by 294,000 b/d. Colombia and Russia declined by 107,000 b/d and 157,000 b/d respectively, compared to the previous month. Crude oil imports from within the OECD area were at 5.97 mb/d in September, indicating a drop of 5.6% or 357,000 b/d compared to the previous month. Canada, Norway, Mexico and the UK respectively are the top OECD crude oil suppliers to the OECD area in September. For the first nine months of 2008, crude oil imports from outside the OECD area averaged 23.91 mb/d, indicating annual growth of 0.8% compared to the same period last year, while imports from within the OECD area averaged 6.34 mb/d, indicating an annual decline of 6.5%.
OECD product imports in August rose by 329,000 b/d or 3.2% compared to the previous month to average 10.61 mb/d. September product imports were also 0.1% lower than a year earlier. Average OECD product imports for the first nine months of 2008 were at 10.61 mb/d, indicating very low annual growth of 0.1% compared to the same period last year. About 58% of OECD product imports in September were supplied from within the OECD area, and 42% from outside. The 329,000 b/d increases in OECD product imports was the result of a rise of 185,000 b/d in imports from outside OECD and 144,000 b/d higher imports from within the OECD. Product imports from outside the OECD area declined by 4.7% during the first nine months of 2008 compared to the same period last year, while imports from within OECD countries increased by 3.9% over the same period.
On the export side, OECD crude oil exports averaged 5.35 mb/d in September, indicating a substantial decrease of 10.5% or 626,000 b/d compared to the previous month, yet were 20.2% or 1.36 mb/d lower compared to September 2007. The decrease of the UK crude oil exports by 187,000 b/d and Canada by 142,000 b/d can be attributed to the lower OECD crude oil exports in September, both compared to the previous month. Average crude oil exports for the OECD countries in the first nine months of 2008 were 6.0 mb/d, about 803,000 b/d or 11.8% lower than in the same period last year.
OECD product exports in September were about 9.71 mb/d, some 551,000 b/d or 5.4% lower than in the previous month. Increases in product exports of the USA of 183,000 b/d, Canada of 73,000 b/d and Japan of 33,000 b/d were offset by declines in exports in Mexico by 100,000 b/d and Netherlands by 53,000 b/d. On a y-o-y basis, OECD product exports in September were about 7.8% higher than in September 2007. OECD product exports for the first nine months of 2008 were 9.71 mb/d, some 653,000 b/d or 7.2% higher than in the same period last year. The decrease in OECD product exports in September compared to the previous month is attributed to the higher decrease in exports outside the OECD area by 643,000 b/d, which was partially offset by an increase in product exports within the OECD of 92,000 b/d or 1.4% compared to the previous month the previous month and 2.2% on a y-o-y basis.
Accordingly, OECD net oil imports in September averaged 24.18 mb/d, indicating a decline of 1.0% or 238,000 b/d compared to the previous month and 5.3% compared to September 2007. At the same time, net oil imports for the first nine months of 2008 averaged 25.14 mb/d, indicating a 0.3% annual decline compared to the same period in 2007. During the first nine months of 2008, OECD net crude oil imports were 24.23 mb/d, up by 2.4% or 563,000 b/d compared to the same period in 2007, while net product imports were 0.9 mb/d, down by 42%, or 639,000 b/d compared to the same period last year. Net crude oil imports from outside the OECD were 22.39 mb/d in September, down by 1.4 mb/d or 6% compared to the previous month, while net crude oil imports from within the OECD area were 885,000 b/d, up by300,000 b/d or 52% compared to the previous month.
Saudi Arabia was the top OECD crude oil supplier in September with a 14.9% share, up from 14.2% in the previous month, followed by Russia with 12.6%, up from 12.4% in the previous month. Canada supplied 6.9% and Iran 6.3%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 56.6% of total OECD crude oil imports in September, up from 55.3% in the previous month. At the same time, OPEC Member Countries supplied about 16.2 mb/d of crude oil to OECD countries in September, representing 72% of total OECD imports from outside OECD. For products, OPEC Member Countries’ share of total OECD product imports in September was 16.4%, up from 15.2% in the previous month. Algeria supplied 3.1%, Saudi Arabia 2.6%, UAE 2.5% and Kuwait 2.2%. OECD’s top non-OPEC product supplier in August was the Netherlands with 12%, followed by the USA with 9.1% and Russia with 8.5%.
USA
According to official data, US crude oil imports declined in November to average 9.97 mb/d, similar to the level in June. US crude oil imports in November were 2.2% or 0.23 mb/d lower compared to the previous month and 30,000 b/d or 0.3% lower than in the same month last year. Despite this decrease, average crude oil imports for the first eleven months of 2008 were 9.8 mb/d, a drop of 2.5% or 249,000 b/d from the same period last year. This decline can be attributed to the overall state and continuing slowing down of the US economy, which has affected the sales of almost all products.
Similar to crude oil imports, US product imports also declined in November by 13.2% to average 2.86 mb/d, but they were also 10.3% lower than in November last year. Apart from residual fuel oil, almost all major product imports were lower in November than in the previous month. Finished motor gasoline imports dropped in November by 164,000 b/d or 54% compared to the previous month to reach 140,000 b/d. Average US gasoline imports for the first eleven months of 2008 dropped by 28% compared to the same period last year to average 327,000 b/d. Distillate fuel oil imports decreased in November by 28,000 b/d or 20% compared to the previous month to average 143,000 b/d. Average distillate fuel oil imports for the first eleven months of 2008 were 201,000 b/d indicating a drop of 109,000 b/d or 54% compared to the same period last year. In contrast, residual fuel oil imports increased in November by 66,000 b/d or 23% compared to the previous month, reaching about 359,000 b/d. In the first eleven months of 2008, the US imported 10% less residual fuel oil than in the same period last year. On average, US product imports declined by 354,000 b/d or 10.2% in the first eleven months of 2008 compared to the same period last year.
On the export side, US product exports increased by 162,000 b/d or 10.8% in November compared to the previous month to average 1.67 mb/d, representing a decrease of 80,000 b/d or 4.6% compared to their levels a year earlier. Average US product exports for the first eleven months of 2008 were 1.79 mb/d, indicating an increase of 393.000 b/d or 28.2% compared to the same period last year.
As a result, US net oil imports decreased by 7% in November compared to the previous month to reach about 11.14 mb/d. The 826,000 b/d decrease in net oil imports in November came as a result of the 229,000 b/d decrease in net crude oil imports and the 597,000 b/d decline in net product imports compared to the previous month. On a y-o-y basis, US net oil imports in November were 2.5% lower than in the same month last year. Average net oil imports for the first eleven months of 2008 were 11.11 mb/d indicating a drop of 1.0 m/d or 8.2% compared to the same period last year.
Canada was the top crude oil supplier to the US in September with a share of 22.9%, up from 17.8% in the previous month, followed by Saudi Arabia with 17.0%, up from 14.9% in the previous month. Venezuela and Mexico came next with 11.23% and 10.59% respectively. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 54.11% of total US crude oil imports in September, down from 56.6% in the previous month. For product imports, Canada became the top product supplier to the US in September with a share of 14.3%, up from 13.2% in the previous month. Russia was next with a share of 12%, down from 13.3% in the previous month followed by the Virgin Islands with 11.11%. For OPEC Member Countries, Algeria supplied 10.89% of total US oil product imports in September, followed by Venezuela with 3.48% and Nigeria with 2.67%. Altogether OPEC Member Countries supplied 18.65% of US product imports in September, down from 20.4% in the previous month. For US product exports in September, Mexico was again the top importer with a share of 18.63%, up from 16.9% in the previous month, followed by Canada with 16.55% and Japan with 5.62%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries imported 3.0% of total US product exports in September, down 0.5% in the previous month. Venezuela imported 1.46% and Nigeria 0.85%.
Japan
According to official data, Japan’s crude oil imports in October averaged 3.84 mb/d, indicating a decline of 4.8% or 192,000 b/d compared to the previous month and of 7.7% or about 0.32 mb/d compared to October 2007. Falling crude oil imports are in line with the current falling rates of oil product sales in this country, which has been going on for several months by now. Despite these month-to-month and y-o-y declines, in the first ten months of 2008 Japan’s crude oil imports averaged 4.21 mb/d, indicating annual growth of 5.1% or 204,000 b/d compared to the same period last year.
Japan’s product imports in October declined by 63,000b/d or 5.3% compared to the previous month to average about 1.13 mb/d, displaying an annual decline of 5.4% compared to the previous year. Japan mainly imports three products: naphtha, LPG and fuel oil, which constituted more than 97% of its total monthly product imports in October. Average LPG imports in October were 410,000 b/d, 23,000 b/d or 6% higher than in the previous month and about 9.4% higher than a year earlier. In the first ten months of 2008, Japan imported an average of 435,000 b/d of LPG, steady compared to last year’s average in the same period. Naphtha imports averaged 628,000 b/d in October, 8.5% or 58,000 b/d lower than in the previous month and 12% lower than a year earlier. Naphtha imports in the first ten months of 2008 averaged 596,000 b/d, a decline of 9% from the same period last year. Fuel oil imports in October were 59,000 b/d, down by 30,000 b/d or 34% from the previous month, and by 29% compared to a year earlier. Fuel oil imports in the first ten months of 2008 averaged 104,000 b/d, an increase of 56% over the same period last year. Naphtha imports constituted 56% of Japan’s total products imports in October, LPG 36% and fuel oil 5%. Total product imports in the first ten months of 2008 averaged 1.15 mb/d, representing a decline of 3.4% compared to the same period last year.
Similarly, Japan’s product exports in October declined by 5.8% compared to the previous month, but were 6% higher than a year earlier, averaging 668,000 b/d. Gasoil, jet fuel and fuel oil are Japan’s main product exports which together constituted about 95% of the country’s total product exports in October. Gasoil exports in October were about 263,000 b/d, up by 14% or 33,000 b/d compared to the previous month and by 41% compared to October 2007. During the first ten months of 2008, Japan exported an average of 239,000 b/d of gasoil, a substantial 56% increase over the same period last year. Jet fuel exports in October were about 222,000 b/d, 25% or 72,000 b/d lower compared to the previous month, but were 2% higher compared to a year earlier. Jet fuel exports in the first ten months of 2008 averaged 230,000 b/d, 14% higher than in the same period last year. Fuel oil exports in October were about 151,000 b/d, 4% higher than in the previous month, but were 15% lower than a year earlier. In the first ten months of 2008, Japan exported an average of 170,000 b/d of fuel oil, unchanged compared to the same period last year. Gasoil exports constituted 39% of Japan’s total product exports in October, jet fuel 33% and fuel oil 23%. Japan exported lower quantities of gasoline, kerosene, lubricating oil, asphalt and LPG in October, totaling 35,000 b/d. Average product exports in the first ten months of 2008 were 681,000 b/d, indicating annual growth of 20% or 113,000 b/d compared to the same period in 2007.
As a result, Japan’s net oil imports in October were about 4.3 mb/d, indicating a decline of 215,000 b/d or 4.8% compared to the previous month and of 8.9% compared to the previous year. Average net oil imports in the first ten months of 2008 were 4.69 mb/d indicating a 1.1% increase compared to the same period in 2007. Japan’s net product imports in the first ten months of 2008 declined to 472,000 b/d from 625,000 b/d during the same period last year. This was mainly due to the 20% increase in its exports over the same period.
Saudi Arabia was once again Japan’s top crude oil supplier in October, supplying 31.9% of Japan’s crude oil imports, up from 24.3% in the previous month. The UAE’s share was 22.4%, down from 24.8% in the previous month. Iran supplied 13.7% of Japan’s crude oil imports in October, up from 10.8% in the previous month, while Qatar’s share was 8.5%, down from 12.1% in the previous month. OPEC Member Countries supplied 88.9% of Japan’s crude oil imports in October, up from 88.2% in the previous month. Top non-OPEC crude oil suppliers in October include Russia with 4%, up from 3.5% in the previous month, and Sudan with 2%. On the product side, preliminary data indicate that the US was Japan’s top supplier in October with 13.9%, followed by the Kuwait with 11.8% and Saudi Arabia with 11.7%. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 49.5% of Japan’s product imports in October, down from 57.4% in the previous month. In addition to the US, top non-OPEC product suppliers in October include
South Korea with 7.6% and Malaysia with 4.4%.
China
According to Chinese official data, China’s crude oil imports increased in October to reach 3.82 mb/d, about 4% or 148,000 b/d higher than in the previous month, but were much higher by 28% compared to October 2007. Average crude oil imports for the first ten months of 2008 were 3.63 mb/d, indicating some 0.34 mb/d or 10.2% annual growth over the same period last year. On the other hand, China’s crude oil production in October was 5% higher compared to the previous month, averaging 3.87 mb/d. China’s October crude oil production was about 50,000 b/d higher than the country’s crude oil imports in the same month.
China’s product imports declined in October for the third consecutive month to average 0.61 mb/d, the lowest average for several years, indicating a decline of 96,000 b/d or 14% compared to the previous month and 11% compared to a year earlier. Apart from minor increases in jet fuel, LPG and asphalt, imports of all major products dropped in October compared to the previous month. China imported about 8,000 b/d of gasoline in October, down from 33,000 b/d in the previous month. Jet fuel imports in October reached about 144,000 b/d, up from 122,000 b/d in the previous month. Naphtha imports in October were about 10,000 b/d, down from 15,000 b/d in the previous month. Gasoil imports declined sharply in October to reach 20,000 b/d, a substantial decline from 82,000 b/d in the previous month and 214,000 b/d in August. China imported about 261,000 b/d of fuel oil in October, about 37% less than in the previous month. Despite this decline, the share of China’s fuel oil imports to its total product imports increased from 41% in the previous month to 43% in October. Imports of LPG averaged 76,000 b/d in October, up from 44,000 b/d in the previous month. Imports of asphalt averaged about 255,000 metric tonnes in October, up from 235,000 metric tonnes in the previous month. Altogether, China imported an average of 0.97 mb/d of products in the first ten months of 2008, indicating annual growth of 6.3% over the same period last year. In October, fuel oil imports accounted for 43% of China’s total product imports, jet fuel for 23%, LPG for 12%, gasoil for 3%, naphtha for 2% and gasoline for 1%.
On the export side, China’s crude oil exports in October were 72,000 b/d, down from 141,000 b/d in the previous month. About 80% of China’s crude oil exports in October were destined to Japan and 20% to both the US and North Korea. Average crude oil exports for the first ten months of 2008 were 75,000 b/d, about 8% higher than in the same period last year.
China’s product exports in October were 0.43 mb/d, about 7% higher compared to the previous month, but slightly more than 30% higher than in October 2007. The drop in naphtha exports did not offset increases in other product exports in this month. Average product exports for the first ten months of 2008 were about 0.4 mb/d, an increase of 4% over the same period last year.
Fuel oil exports in October were 135,000 b/d, steady compared to the previous month. Exports of jet fuel in October were about 119,000 b/d, up from 111,000 b/d in the previous month. Gasoline exports were 57,000 b/d, up from 54,000 b/d in the previous month. Typically, China is a major gasoline exporter in Asia. In its preparation for the Olympics, the country turned into a net gasoline importer for four successive months starting in May 2008. In September, China switched back to be a net gasoline exporter. Net gasoline exports in October were about 50,000 b/d, compared to 22,000 b/d in the previous month. China’s naphtha exports in October were about 16,000 b/d, down from 25,000 b/d in the previous month. Gasoil exports in October were 26,000 b/d, up from 6,000 b/d in the previous month. China exported 28,000 b/d of LPG in October, up from 24,000 b/d in September. Fuel oil exports accounted for 32% of China’s total product exports in October, jet fuel for 28%, gasoline for 13%, gasoil for 6% and naphtha for 4%.
With net crude oil imports of 3.75 mb/d and net product imports at 185,000 b/d, China’s net oil imports in October were 3.93 mb/d, an increase of 2.4% or 91,000 b/d over the previous month, but 21% higher than a year earlier. Higher net oil imports in October raised China’s average net oil imports for the first ten months of 2008 to about 4.12 mb/d, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.
Once again, Saudi Arabia was China’s top crude oil supplier in October with a share of 23.4%, down from 27.1% in the previous month. Angola was next with 15.5%, down from 14.3% in the previous month. Iran’s share of China’s total crude oil imports in October was 10.9%, down from 12.7% in the previous month. Altogether, OPEC Member Countries supplied 64.2% of China’s crude oil imports in October, down from 64.9% in the previous month. Top non-OPEC crude oil suppliers in October include Oman with 9.6%, Russia with 5.7% and Sudan with 4.3%.
India
According to preliminary data, India’s crude oil imports in October increased by 182,000 b/d or 7.2% compared to the previous month to reach about 2.69 mb/d, indicating an increase of 13.2% y-o-y compared to October 2007. India's crude oil imports in the first ten months of 2008 averaged 2.58 mb/d, an increase of 7.4% or 177,000 b/d over the same period last year, supported by strong domestic fuel oil sales throughout the year, even though they declined in October on a y-o-y basis for the first time in seventeen months. Higher crude oil imports in 2008 are also attributed to higher overseas purchases by Essar Oil and Reliance Industries (export-oriented companies).
India’s product imports in October surged by 39.4% compared to the previous month, mainly due to the fact that product imports in September were at their lowest level since February 2007. Product imports in October averaged 0.42 mb/d, about 6.3% higher than a year earlier, although India’s domestic product sales declined in October by about 1.7% over the same period. Imports of all major products were higher in October compared to a year earlier. After a month without gasoil imports in September, India resumed its gasoil imports in October with an average of about 26,000 b/d. This came at a time when gasoil sales in October increased by 6% compared to a double digit growth recorded in the previous month on lower off-take by industrial users. Due to the state control of gasoil prices in India, prices of alternative naphtha and fuel oil were lower in October and therefore private power generators are expected to switch back against gasoil and hence lower gasoil imports over the coming months are expected unless gasoil prices go down. In the first ten months of 2008, India imported an average of 61,000 b/d of gas oil, some 27% higher than in the same period last year. Gasoline imports reached about 8,000 b/d in October up from no imports in the previous month, in line with the 10% annual increase in gasoline domestic sales in October.
LPG imports in October averaged 113,000 b/d compared to about 89,000 b/d in the previous month. Average LPG imports in the first ten months of 2008 were about 82,000 b/d, almost steady compared to a year earlier. India imported an average of 141,000 b/d of naphtha in October, about 5% higher than in the previous month, but 17% lower than a year earlier. Fuel oil imports in October averaged 27,000 b/d, up from 17,000 b/d in September, and kerosene imports were about 25,000 b/d, up from 11,000 b/d in September. Altogether, India imported an average of 0.41 mb/d of products during the first ten months of 2008, almost steady compared to the same period last year.
On the export side, India’s total product exports of 774,000 b/d in October were 2.3% higher compared to the previous month, but were 12% lower than a year earlier. Declines in gasoil and fuel oil exports were more than offset by increases in gasoline, naphtha and jet fuel exports. Fuel oil exports in October averaged 117,000 b/d, down from 125,000 b/d in the previous month. In the first ten months of 2008, India exported 44% more fuel oil than in the same period last year. Jet fuel exports were at 76,000 b/d in October, 4% higher compared to the previous month, yet 19% lower than a year earlier. Gasoil exports in October averaged 243,000 b/d, a decline of 14% from the previous month and 20% lower than in October 2007. In the first ten months of 2008, India exported an average of 267,000 b/d of gasoil, about 2% lower than in the same period last year. For the second month in a row, gasoline exports increased substantially in October, averaging 172,000 b/d, up from about 116,000 b/d in September. Average gasoline exports during the first ten months of 2008 were 32% higher than in the same period last year. Naphtha exports were at 166,000 b/d in October, up from 146,000 b/d in the previous month. Naphtha exports during the first ten months of 2008 were 30% lower than in the same period last year. Altogether, India exported an average of 745,000 b/d of oil products during the first ten months of 2008, about 7.2% or 58,000 b/d lower than in the same period last year.
As a result, India’s net oil imports in October averaged 2.33 mb/d, displaying an increase of 13.8% or 282,000 b/d compared to the previous month, and also 23.2% higher than a year earlier. The increase in net oil imports is attributed to an 182,000 b/d increase in net crude oil imports and a 101,000 b/d increase in net product imports. In the first ten months of 2008, India's net oil imports averaged 2.25 mb/d, 11.6% or 233,000 b/d higher than the same period in 2007.
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