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Middle East oil production is estimated to average 1.50 mb/d in 2012, a decrease of 190 tb/d from 2011 and indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d from last month. This revision comes from Syria, where the oil supply forecast has been revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous month. Syria’s production is expected to decline by 160 tb/d in 2012 to 0.21 mb/d, on the back of its political issues. Oman’s production is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2012 to 0.91 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment. This steady state has occurred despite a short strike that was resolved. On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply is forecast to average 1.48 mb/d, 1.50 mb/d, 1.50 mb/d and 1.52 mb/d respectively.
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