Balance of Supply and Demand - Dec 09

Source: OPEC_RP091212 12/15/2009, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2009
Demand for OPEC crude has been revised down by around 70 tb/d to currently stand at 28.6 mb/d, reflecting mainly the upward revision in non-OPEC supply as demand remained almost unchanged. However, this still represents a considerable decline of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. While the first half experienced negative growth of around 3.1 mb/d compared to the same period last year, the decline narrowed in the second half to show a loss of only 1.6 mb/d. The fourth quarter is projected to show negative growth of 1.4 mb/d.

Forecast for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is projected to average 28.6 mb/d, representing an upward revision of around 100 tb/d from the previous assessment as world oil demand was revised up and OPEC NGL was revised down. Required OPEC crude is forecast to show a slight increase of 30 tb/d following two consecutives annual declines. The first half of the year is still showing a drop of 0.3 mb/d, while the second half is estimated to see positive growth of around 0.3 mb/d, implying a steady recovery.




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