Golden Valley Electric Association is reaching out to its members to raise awareness about potential energy supply challenges in the coming months, primarily predicated by the temporary loss of Bradley Lake Hydropower due to necessary transmission construction on the Kenai Peninsula and the continued natural gas shortage in the Cook Inlet. While these changes on their own do not impact GVEA meeting our member load, when combined with other unexpected scenarios that could occur, it eliminates resources GVEA has traditionally used to prevent outages. GVEA is committed to preventing power disruptions, but we want to ensure our members remain informed and ready for possible scenarios that could impact GVEA’s ability to meet our full electric demand.
What is the situation?
Under normal operating conditions, GVEA has adequate generation to serve its members, however, in contingency planning, there are certain modeled scenarios where a generation shortfall could occur. Examples of these unlikely events include multiple generating units coming offline at the same time. The primary causes behind these challenges are as follows:
Cook Inlet Natural Gas Shortage
Economy energy from Southcentral utilities has not been available for purchase since February 2024. It will continue to be unavailable for the foreseeable future due to the natural gas shortage in the Cook Inlet.
GVEA’s contract with Enstar for 20 megawatts (MW) will end on January 23, 2025, with no current opportunity to renew it, also due to the natural gas shortage in the Cook Inlet.
Temporary Loss of Bradley Lake Hydropower
Critical construction is taking place in the first quarter of 2025 on a portion of transmission line on the Kenai Peninsula, interrupting access to 20 MW of Bradley Lake Hydro power for approximately 67 days. This construction is necessary to ensure reliability to one of GVEA’s cheapest sources of power. Unfortunately, it must be performed in the winter to ensure the ground is frozen for access and to minimize the impact to migratory bird areas, as required by federal law. This construction will continue in the first quarter of each year for the next seven to ten years.
“At this time, we do not anticipate disruptions, and we aim to keep it that way,” said Travis Million, GVEA President and CEO.
GVEA has been taking many steps to further harden assets against these scenarios, including switching fuel types to reduce competition, building additional fuel storage, implementing a strategic generation plan that seeks to further diversify generation, making investments to continue to improve the reliability of our existing units and seeking funding for future generation, among others.
What does this mean?
The natural gas shortage and temporary loss of Bradley Lake hydro power effectively remove the safety net that GVEA has traditionally been able to rely upon in cases of power supply challenges. Ultimately, many factors would need to align for GVEA to face a generation shortfall, but we must be prepared for these situations and are committed to informing members about what is going on with their cooperative and why.
If GVEA were to experience a worst-case scenario, such as the unexpected failure of multiple generation units simultaneously, power demand may exceed supply. This would require the cooperative to initiate a controlled load shed program. This program, if ever needed, would consist of relatively short power disruptions that rotate throughout the communities we serve to reduce demand to match supply and maintain grid reliability. Disruptions would be between 30 minutes and one hour in duration. The program would be implemented carefully to prioritize safety and minimize inconvenience, and it is important to note that critical services, such as 911 and the hospital will not be impacted.
Prior to rotating through this program with residential members, GVEA would first work with our large industrial loads to minimize potential impacts to our wider membership. GVEA has been in discussion with these industrial members and recognizing the importance of this issue to the communities we serve, all have expressed willingness to assist, should initiating a controlled load shed program become necessary.
“GVEA is not alone in this situation. The other Railbelt electric utilities are facing similar challenges with natural gas requiring everyone to consider their resource adequacy and alternatives,” said Million. “Regardless, I want to emphasize that this is about transparency and preparation, not alarm. It matters to me that members know what is happening, and importantly, what could happen.”
How do I prepare?
Due to the nature of the scenarios that could cause the implementation of a controlled load shed program, GVEA would be unable to provide notice to the first affected area, but updates would be provided every step of the way via web, social media and GVEA’s telephone system.
Should the program become necessary at any point in time, power interruptions would be short, but it is important to be prepared with charged devices and an emergency kit. If members own a backup source of power, it is always a good idea to ensure it is tuned up and working properly.
Where can I find more information?
GVEA has a webpage dedicated to this program at www.gvea.com/clsp with additional details, FAQs and a comprehensive list of recommended preparations.
"We’re always focused on providing reliable power to our members," said Million, "but the safety and well-being of the communities we serve remains GVEA’s highest priority. While we’re confident in our generation capabilities, we’re taking proactive steps to address potential challenges and ensure system reliability, and members will be informed every step of the way."