Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 10

Source: OPEC_RP100212 2/10/2010, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2009
Demand for OPEC crude has been revised up by around 130,000 b/d to currently stand at 28.8 mb/d, driven by an upward revision to the fourth quarter of 400,000 b/d. This change resulted from an upward revision in world oil demand combined with a downward revision in non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs as some up-to-date data has become available for Member Countries. Demand for OPEC crude in 2009 still represents a considerable decline of 2.2 mb/d from the previous year.

The first half of the year experienced negative growth of around 3.0 mb/d compared to the same period last year. However, the decline is seen narrowing in the second half to show a loss of only 1.1 mb/d in the fourth quarter.

Forecast for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is projected to average 28.8 mb/d, following an upward revision of about 150,000 b/d from the previous assessment as OPEC NGLs experienced a downward revision; however, world oil demand and non-OPEC supply remained almost unchanged. On a quarterly basis, with the exception of the third quarter, all other quarters saw an upward revision.

Required demand for OPEC crude is forecast to remain almost at the same level as last year, following two consecutive annual declines. The first half of the year is still showing a drop of 0.3 mb/d, while the second half is estimated to see positive growth of around 0.3 mb/d in the third quarter and 0.2 mb/d in the fourth.


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