Balance of Supply and Demand - Apr 10

Source: OPEC_RP100412 4/14/2010, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2009
Demand for OPEC crude has been revised down by around 54,000 b/d to currently stand at 28.9 mb/d driven by a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d in the second half of the year. This change resulted from a combination of an adjustment in world oil demand as well as non-OPEC supply. Demand for OPEC crude still represents a considerable decline of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. The first half experienced negative growth of around 3.0 mb/d compared to the same period last year, while the decline is seen narrowing in the second half to show a loss of only 2.1 mb/d in the third quarter followed by a decline of 1.1 mb/d in the fourth.

Forecast for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is projected to average 28.8 mb/d, following a downward revision of about 135 tb/d from the previous assessment as some up-to-date data become available for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply for the first quarter. Demand for OPEC crude is forecast to fall by 0.1 mb/d from a year earlier following two consecutive annual declines. The first half of the year still shows a drop of 0.3 mb/d, while the second half is estimated to see positive growth of around 0.3 mb/d in the third quarter and 0.2 mb/d in the fourth, indicating a gradual recovery.


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