Balance of Supply and Demand - Dec10

Source: OPEC_RP101212 12/13/2010, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude for 2010 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d to currently stand at 28.9 mb/d. This revision reflects upward adjustments in both world oil demand and non-OPEC supply. With respect to the quarters, the main revisions occurred in the third and the fourth quarter as up-to-date data became available. The current estimate represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year. The first quarter of the year is still showing a drop of 1.0 mb/d while the second quarter remains flat. The third quarter is estimated to see positive growth of 1.3 mb/d while the fourth quarter is projected to return to negative growth at 0.6 mb/d.

Forecast for 2011
The demand for OPEC crude for next year is projected to average 29.2 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month, however, the third quarter was revised up, reflecting the adjustment in the base line. Required OPEC crude is forecast to increase by 0.3 mb/d following three consecutive annual declines. The first half is expected to see average growth of around 0.3 mb/d, while the third is forecast to see slight growth of 0.1 mb/d. The fourth quarter is projected to see higher growth of 0.5 mb/d compared to the same quarter this year.


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