Balance of Supply and Demand - Jan 11

Source: OPEC_RP110112 1/19/2011, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude for 2010 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d to currently stand at 29.0 mb/d. This revision reflects mainly the upward adjustment in world oil demand. All the quarters saw an upward revision with the bulk of the adjustment occurring in the third quarter, which was revised up by 0.2 mb, reflecting up-to-date data. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood at the same level as 2009. The first quarter of the year is still showing a drop of 0.9 mb/d, while the second quarter is estimated to see slight growth of 0.1 mb/d. The third quarter is estimated to see positive growth of 1.4 mb/d, while the fourth quarter is projected to return to negative growth with 0.4 mb/d.

Forecast for 2011
The demand for OPEC crude for this year is projected to average 29.4 mb/d, showing an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d from the previous assessment, mainly due to the adjustment of world oil demand, as total non-OPEC supply including OPEC NGLs remained almost unchanged.

The bulk of the revision came from the third and fourth quarter as they were revised up by 0.4 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively. The required OPEC crude is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d this year. The first quarter is expected to see growth of around 0.3 mb/d, while the second quarter is forecast to see a slight increase of 0.1 mb/d. The third quarter is projected to see a rise of 0.3 mb/d; however, the fourth quarter is expected to see higher growth of 0.7 mb/d compared to the same period last year.


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