Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 11

Source: OPEC_RP110212 2/14/2011, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude for 2010 was revised up by 0.2 mb/d to currently stand at 29.3 mb/d, reflecting the upward adjustment in world oil demand as non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs remained almost unchanged. All quarters saw an upward revision, mostly in 4Q10, which was revised up by 0.5 mb/d, reflecting up-to-date data. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood 0.2 mb/d above 2009. The first quarter of the year is still showing a drop of 0.9 mb/d, while the second quarter is estimated to see slight growth of 0.2 mb/d. The third quarter is estimated to a see positive increase of 1.5 mb/d while the fourth quarter is seen to remain flat compared to the previous year over the same period.

Forecast for 2011
The demand for OPEC crude is projected to average 29.8 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.4 mb/d from the previous assessment, mainly due to the adjustment in world oil demand, as total non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, remained almost unchanged. The bulk of the revision came from the first and fourth quarters, both revised up by 0.6 mb/d. Required OPEC crude is forecast to increase by 0.5 mb/d this year.

The first quarter is expected to see growth of around 0.7 mb/d, while the second quarter is forecast to see less growth of 0.3 mb/d. The third quarter is projected to see growth of 0.4 mb/d; however, the fourth quarter is expected to see higher growth of 0.7 mb/d compared to the last year over the same period.


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