Balance of Supply and Demand - Apr 11

Source: OPEC_RP110412 4/14/2011, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2010
Demand for OPEC crude for 2010 has been revised up by 0.2 mb/d to currently stand at 29.5 mb/d, reflecting mainly the upward adjustment in world oil demand. All the quarters saw an upward revision with the bulk of the adjustment occurring in the fourth quarter, which was increased by 0.3 mb/d to reflect the most recent data. The demand for OPEC crude is estimated to have risen by 0.4 mb/d above the previous year.

Compared to a year ago, the first quarter showed a drop of 0.8 mb/d, while the second quarter is estimated to see slight growth of 0.3 mb/d. The third quarter is forecast to see positive growth of 1.7 mb/d followed by 0.5 mb/d growth in the fourth quarter.

Forecast for 2011
The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is projected to average 29.9 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment, mainly due to an adjustment in world oil demand. The first quarter remained unchanged, the second quarter saw a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d, while the third and the fourth quarters were revised up by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively. Required OPEC crude is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d this year over last year. Compared to a year ago, the first quarter should see growth of around 0.7 mb/d, while the second is forecast to experience reduced growth of 0.2 mb/d. The third quarter is projected to remain flat, while the fourth quarter is likely to see higher growth of 0.5 mb/d.




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