Balance of Supply and Demand - AUG 11

Source: OPEC_RP110812 8/9/2011, Location: Europe

Forecast for 2011
Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment as both global demand and non-OPEC supply were revised down by roughly the same amount. With the exception of 4Q11, which saw an upward revision of 50 tb/d, all other quarters remained unchanged. At 30.0 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.2 mb/d above 2010. The first quarter showed growth of 0.6 mb/d, compared to the same period a year ago, while the second remained unchanged. The third and fourth quarters are estimated to see positive growth of 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d.

Forecast for 2012

The demand for OPEC for 2012 is projected to average 30.2 mb/d, down 0.1 mb/d from the previous report. Within the quarters, the first and second quarter were revised down by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively. The third and the fourth quarters were revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment. Required OPEC crude in 2012 is forecast to increase by 0.2 mb/d, compared to the current year. The first quarter is estimated to see growth of 0.3 mb/d, followed by negative growth of 0.2 mb/d in the second, while both the third and the fourth quarter are forecast to see an increase of 0.4 mb/d, compared to the same period in the previous year.




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