FSU and Russia Oil Supply - OCT 11

Source: OPEC 10/11/2011, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil production is foreseen to increase by 0.10 mb/d in 2011 and average 13.32 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. The forecast experienced a few upward and downward revisions on a quarterly basis, where the downward revisions more than offset the upward ones. The majority of the revisions took place in the third quarter as more production data became available. FSU oil supply growth is supported mainly by Russia and, to a lesser extent, Kazakhstan while Azerbaijan oil production is expected to decline in 2011. According to preliminary data, FSU oil supply increased by 0.10 mb/d during the first three quarters in 2011, compared to the same period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, total oil production in the FSU is estimated to average 13.32 mb/d, 13.26 mb/d, 13.29 mb/d, and 13.43 mb/d respectively. China oil output is anticipated to increase by 70 tb/d in 2011 and average 4.19 mb/d. Other Europe supply is seen to remain flat from 2010 and average 0.14 mb/d in 2011.

Russian oil production, according to preliminary data, registered a new record high in September with a minor increase over the previous month. The strong performance was supported by new volume coming from green fields. Russia oil supply is expected to increase by 0.10 mb/d in 2011 to average 10.24 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 20 tb/d compared to the previous month. The upward revision came from the update introduced to the third quarter estimates as new data indicated higher output than previously expected. The third quarter upward revision was partially carried over to the rest of the year.

Additionally, the startup of the Kolvinskoye field further supported the upward revision. During the first three quarters of 2011, Russia oil supply averaged 10.24 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.13 mb/d compared to the same period in 2010. Third quarter oil supply indicated an increase of 0.14 mb/d compared to the same period of 2010. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is estimated to average 10.21 mb/d,10.23 mb/d, 10.27 mb/d, and 10.24 mb/d, respectively. Russian oil production averaged 10.30 mb/d in September, up by 20 tb/d from a month earlier.


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