Caspian and China Oil Supply - OCT 11

Source: OPEC 10/11/2011, Location: Asia

Kazakh oil supply is foreseen to increase by 30 tb/d in 2011 to average 1.63 mb/d, indicating a minor downward revision of less than 10 tb/d from the previous month. Slightly lower-than expected production in the early part of the third quarter required a minor downward revision to Kazakhstan supply. The fourth quarter oil supply is expected to increase from the third quarter, as maintenance in different fields comes to an end. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan oil supply is seen to stand at 1.66 mb/d, 1.60 mb/d, 1.57 mb/d, and 1.68 mb/d respectively.

Azeri oil production is forecast to drop 50 tb/d in 2011 to average 1.02 mb/d in 2011, indicating a downward revision of around 40 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The downward revision was introduced to the second half oil supply estimates. Updated production data for the early parts of the third quarter showed that output remained below expectations, which necessitated the downward revision in the third quarter. Furthermore, maintenance at the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) facilities during the fourth quarter added to the downward revision. West, East, and Central Azeri platforms are expected to shut down for around 2 weeks to carryout maintenance work. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan oil output is seen to stand at 1.02 mb/d, 1.00 mb/d,1.01 mb/d, and 1.07 mb/d, respectively.

Preliminary production data indicated that China oil output decreased in August compared to the previous month, on the back of operational issues as well as the shutdown of the Peng Lai development. China oil production is expected to increase by 70 tb/d in 2011 to average 4.19 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 30 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision came to adjust for updated production data as well as to cover for the production short come due to recent technical problems. Fourth quarter supply is anticipated to experience an increase from the third quarter, assuming that output will resume at the Peng Lai field. Reports indicated that the operator restarted a well in order to depressurize the reservoir. On a quarterly basis, China oil supply is expected to average 4.22 mb/d, 4.19 mb/d, 4.14 mb/d, and 4.21 mb/d respectively.


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