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Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

Source: Reuters 11/8/2011, Location: Asia

This latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI comes during a record-breaking year of oil production for the country. Output reached a fresh post-Soviet high of 10.3mn barrels per day (b/d) in September 2011, helping the country maintain its position ahead of Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. For 2011 as a whole, BMI expects oil output to average 10.19mn b/d. Although oil production has been rising rapidly, we do not see the country being able to surpass the 11mn b/d mark in the next few years. We forecast output reaching 10.92mn b/d by 2015.

Russia will likely remain the world's largest gas exporter for the foreseeable future, but an increasing share of production will have to come from outside the country's traditional gas heartland of West Siberia. Gas output will continue to rise over the medium term as new fields offset declining volumes in existing producers. Russia produced 622bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010 and will produce 728bcm by 2015. Consumption will rise along with production, albeit more slowly, as Russia gradually reforms domestic gas pricing and increases energy efficiency in line with state targets. We forecast demand growing from 447bcm in 2011 to 511bcm by 2015.

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