FSU and Russia Oil Supply – November 2011

Source: OPEC 11/22/2011, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil supply is forecast to increase by 70 tb/d in 2011 to average 13.29 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 30 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision came from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan due to updated production data. There was an upward revision to the Russia oil supply forecast; however, it was not enough to offset the downward revision. Growth remains expected from the FSU in 2011, with Russia at the top of the list in terms of growth volume and offsetting the anticipated decline in other countries in the region.

During the first three quarters of 2011, FSU oil output increased by 90 tb/d on average, compared to the same period of 2010. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in the FSU is estimated to average 13.32 mb/d, 13.26 mb/d, 13.25 mb/d and 13.35 mb/d, respectively. China oil production is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2011, to average 4.15 mb/d. Other Europe supply is estimated to remain flat from 2010 and average 0.14 mb/d in 2011.

Russia oil supply is projected to grow by 0.11 mb/d in 2011 and average 10.25 mb/d, representing a minor upward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The upward revision was introduced to the third quarter, as updated production data indicated higher output than previously expected. Part of the upward revision was carried over to the fourth quarter. According to preliminary data, Russia oil production registered a new record high in October, exceeding the previous month’s record high by 40 tb/d. In 2011, Russian oil supply continued to show solid resilience with monthly output breaking the previous record high seven times so far in the year.

The increase in October output was supported by green field production while brown field output remained steady. Additionally, the startup of new pipeline capacity supported growth with further transit volumes for new barrels. During the first three quarters of 2011, Russia oil production increased by 0.13 mb/d on average, compared to the same period in 2010. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is seen to average 10.21 mb/d, 10.23 mb/d, 10.28 mb/d and 10.28 mb/d, respectively. Russia oil production averaged 10.36 mb/d in October, up by 40 tb/d from September.


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