Balance of Supply and Demand - DEC 11

Source: OPEC_RP111212 12/13/2011, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2011
Demand for OPEC crude for this year remained unchanged from the previous assessment. However, within the quarters, 1Q11 saw a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d. In contrast, 3Q11 was revised up by 0.2 mb/d reflecting the downward revision in non-OPEC supply. 2Q11 and 4Q11 remained unchanged from the previous report. At 30.0 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.3 mb/d above the 2010 level. 1Q11 and 2Q11 showed growth of 0.8 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively, while 3Q11 is estimated to have remain unchanged. 4Q11 is seen to show growth of 0.2 mb/d compared to the previous year at the same period.

Forecast for 2012
The demand for OPEC crude in 2012 is projected to average 30.1 mb/d, about 0.1 mb/d higher than in the previous report. This upward revision came as the downward adjustment in non-OPEC supply outpaced the downward revision in global demand. Within the quarters, 1Q12 and 4Q12 were revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while 2Q12 and 3Q12 saw an upward adjustment of 0.3 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively. Required OPEC crude is forecast to see an increase of about 0.1 mb/d from this year. 1Q12 is estimated to see growth of 0.2 mb/d, followed by negative growth of 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d in 2Q12 and 3Q12 respectively. 4Q12 is forecast to see an increase of 0.3 mb/d compared to a year earlier at the same period.


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