India Oil Demand in January 2012

Source: OPEC 1/22/2012, Location: Asia

Following slow oil demand in June through August, Indian diesel demand increased in November by 8% y-o-y, due to the use of independent power-generators for electricity. Although gasoline and fuel oil demand declined in November, almost all major products exhibited strong growth. This led to an overall increase in India’s oil demand of 11.3%, or 350 tb/d, in November. The majority of the growth was for naphtha and LPG, resulting from huge demand in the petrochemical industry. With regards to the transport industry, the planned increase in gasoline prices was delayed. However, when it comes into force in the near future, it is expected to marginally dent oil demand. The massive increase in vehicle sales will push up transport fuel consumption in 2012. It was forecast that India’s oil demand would grow by 0.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2011 — this would lead to annual growth of 4.3% for the year. The Indian economy will grow in 2012, although at a slower pace than in 2011. However, assuming GDP growth of 7.3%, Indian oil demand growth is expected to be 0.12 mb/d y-o-y in 2012. Considering the strong Indian oil demand, Other Asia demand has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d in the fourth quarter to end 2011 with growth of 0.24 mb/d y-o-y. Other Asia demand for this year will grow strongly, but slightly down on last year. The region’s oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2012.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), domestic passenger car sales increased by 7% during November y-o-y. However, SIAM has sharply lowered its forecast for the next fiscal year to 2–4% from originally 10%. This reduction is the result of higher fuel costs — state-run oil firms increased prices four times in 2011 — and relatively high borrowing costs. The low seasonality in the Middle East in the fourth quarter caused a minor slowdown in the region’s biggest consuming countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Summer electricity consumption pushed up third-quarter oil demand by 0.2 mb/d, in line with the normal seasonal pattern. Middle East oil demand growth reached 0.17 mb/d in 2011. The factors that drive oil demand in the Middle East will not be different this year from last year. Hence, oil demand for 2012 is forecast to grow by 0.19 mb/d y-o-y.


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