Asia Developing Countries Oil Supply - January 2012

Source: OPEC 1/23/2012, Location: Asia

Total Developing Countries’ (DCs) oil production is projected to grow by 0.26 mb/d over the previous year to average 12.93 mb/d in 2012, representing a downward revision of 35 tb/d from the previous month. Growth is supported mainly by Latin America and Other Asia while Middle East supply is seen to drop in 2012 and Africa output is seen to remain steady. The anticipated growth in 2012 is expected after flat supply in 2011, which was mainly due to weather, delays, maintenance, and political factors. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply in DCs is seen to average 12.87 mb/d, 12.89 mb/d, 12.96 mb/d and 12.99 mb/d respectively. According to preliminary data, total DCs’ oil supply averaged 12.70 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2011, a decline of 50 tb/d over the same period in 2010.

Oil production from Other Asia is expected to increase by 50 tb/d in 2012 to average 3.67 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 30 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The downward revision was introduced to Other Asia and India oil supply forecasts. Other Asia oil supply experienced a downward revision during the fourth quarter 2011 which was carried over to 2012. India oil supply is expected to increase by 30 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.92 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d compared to the previous month. The downward revision that impacted the fourth quarter 2011 supply was partially carried over to 2012. The expected growth in India oil production is supported by the ramp-up of the Mangala projects. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia supply is seen to average 3.66 mb/d, 3.66 mb/d, 3.67 mb/d and 3.68 mb/d respectively.

Indonesia oil production is anticipated to decline by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.97 mb/d, unchanged from the previous evaluation. The foreseen supply drop is driven by mature field decline, while the new developments are partially offsetting the decline. Developments such as Cepu, Mahakam, West Madura, and Tambang are expected to add new volumes in 2012. Malaysia oil supply is projected to experience a minor decline of 10 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.63 mb/d. The lack of significant developments coupled with mature decline is behind the anticipated steady state. Vietnam oil supply is expected to increase 40 tb/d in 2012, the largest growth among Other Asia supply, to average 0.39 mb/d. Growth is supported by new volumes from the Rang Dong, Te Giac Trang, Su Tu Trang, and Lan Do projects.


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