Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 12

Source: OPEC_RP120212 2/9/2012, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2011
Demand for OPEC crude for 2011 remained unchanged from the previous assessment, as both non-OPEC supply and world oil demand saw a similar downward adjustment of around 20,000 b/d each, leaving the demand for OPEC crude unchanged. At 30.1 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.4 mb/d above 2010. The first and second quarters show growth of 0.9 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively, while the third quarter is estimated to have remained unchanged. The fourth quarter is seen to show growth of 0.4 mb/d compared with the same period the previous year.

Forecast for 2012
The demand for OPEC crude for 2012 is projected to average 30.0 mb/d, about 0.1 mb/d lower than in the previous report, driven mainly by a downward revision to demand, outweighing a marginal lower revision in non-OPEC supply. In quarterly terms, the first quarter saw the bulk of the adjustment, being revised down by 0.3 mb/d, followed by 0.1 mb/d downward revisions to the second and fourth quarters, while the third remained unchanged from the previous assessment. The required OPEC crude is forecast to show a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year. The first and third quarters are estimated to see negative growth of 0.1 mb/d, while the second is expected to see negative growth of 0.2 mb/d and the fourth quarter is expected to remain unchanged.


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