FSU Oil Trade in January 2012

Total FSU crude exports fell by 273 tb/d, or 4.1%, m-o-m to 6.40 mb/d in December. The fall might be attributed to the reduction in Transneft shipments through Baltic ports, a drop of 17.5%, or 178 tb/d, m-o-m, and Black Sea ports, a reduction of 11.5%, or 188 tb/d, m-o-m. Meanwhile, supplies from the far-eastern Kozmino terminal rose sharply by 23.4%, or 63 tb/d; the Druzhba system saw a moderate increase in exports of 2.7%, or 34 tb/d; and direct pipeline exports to China climbed by 5.4%, or 17 tb/d. This underpinned expectations that Russian producers would cut seaborne crude exports in February, in favour of more profitable domestic sales and deliveries along the Druzhba pipeline to Eastern Europe. Moreover, the planned launch later this year of the second leg of the 600 tb/d Baltic Pipeline System (BPS), which feeds Ust-Luga, is expected to put an end to Urals exports through the Polish port of Gdansk. Crude exports using the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline increased to 639 tb/d, or by 4.2%, in December after a planned production shutdown, which was caused by field maintenance in November. Shipments through Russia’s Transneft pipeline system declined by 5.6% to 4.23 mb/d. Exports of Kazakh crude to China through the Kenkiyak- Alashankou pipeline rose m-o-m in December by 4.9%, or 9 tb/d.

Exports of CPC Blend through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Novorossiysk were down by 62 tb/d, or 9.2%, m-o-m in December to stand at 615 tb/d. Exports of Sakhalin fell in December, bringing the overall figure from Russia’s far east to 247 tb/d, a decline of 9.9%, or 27 tb/d. Crude exports from Varandey terminal in northern Russia dropped to 51 tb/d from 53 tb/d. FSU total product exports were down in December by a marginal 1.1% to 2.39 mb/d, compared with the previous month. However, due to reduced domestic demand during the New Year holiday period, in particular, supplies of gasoline rose by 151 tb/d, or 84.1%. This was countered by decreases in jet fuel of 75.0%, or 3 tb/d; naphtha of 2.6%, or 5 tb/d; gasoil of 3.2%, or 22 tb/d; fuel oil of 2.8%, or 36 tb/d; and VGO of 16.0%, or 29 tb/d.