Gulf Oil and Gas accountACCOUNT

Oil Trade - June 12

Source: OPEC_RP120610 6/12/2012, Location: Europe

Preliminary data indicates that US crude oil imports increased by 146.5 tb/d or 1.7% to 8.9 mb/d m-o-m in May. Imports on a y-o-y basis in May were 127.7 tb/d or 1.4% lower compared to last year’s level, when they were registered at 8.9 mb/d. Product imports increased 2.0 mb/d to 168.77 tb/d, 9.4% higher compared to the previous month. In y-o-y terms, a drop of 0.72 mb/d or 26.9% was registered. Year-todate, crude oil imports showed a slight decline of 83 tb/d or 0.9% to a level of 8.7 mb/d. The year-to-date data concerning products showed a decline of 0.73 tb/d or 26.8% to a level of 1.98 mb/d. Product exports decreased to 2.83 mb/d in May, a decline of 136.6 tb/d or 5.1% m-o-m and 220.6 tb/d or 8.47% y-o-y. As a result, US net oil imports increased in May to 7.96 mb/d, up by 178 tb/d or 2.3% m-o-m. However, net oil imports remained almost 1.07 mb/d or 11.9% below the previous year’s level.

The US imported around 4.08 mb/d of crude oil from OPEC Members in March, representing a share of 46.5% of total US imports. This was an increase of 291 tb/d or 7.7% m-o-m. Canada remained the main supplier with 2.46 mb/d or 28.1%, followed by Saudi Arabia with 1.37 mb/d or 15.6%, Mexico with 0.95 mb/d or 10.8%, Venezuela with 0.94 mb/d or 10.7%, and Kuwait with 0.46 mb/d or 5.20%. On the product side, US imports from OPEC Members in March have increased by 37 tb/d or 18.7% to an average of around 235 tb/d. OPEC holds a share of 9.9% of total US product imports. Canada and Russia remained the main suppliers accounting for 469 tb/d or 19.8% and 238 tb/d or 10.0%, respectively, followed by the Netherlands with 143 tb/d or 6.0%, Algeria with 141 tb/d or 5.9%, and the UK with 132 tb/d or 5.6%.

Japan’s crude oil imports declined in April to 3.93 mb/d, representing a decline of 278 tb/d or 6.6% from a month earlier. Y-o-y, this represents an increase of 479 tb/d or 13.9%. Product imports, including LPG, increased to 1.11 mb/d, which represents growth of 21 tb/d or 1.9% m-o m and a decrease of 30 tb/d or 2.7% on a y-o-y basis. Product exports, including LPG, increased in April by 54 tb/d or 13.3%, averaging 0.46 mb/d. On a y-o-y basis, there was an increase of 195 tb/d or 72.9%. As a result, Japan’s net oil imports decreased in April by 312 tb/d or 6.4% to 4.58 mb/d from a month before. On a y-o-y basis, there was an increase of 254 tb/d or 5.9%. The decrease can be attributed to the net trade in crude oil, which declined by 278 tb/d or 6.6% on a m-o-m basis.

China’s crude oil imports declined in April by 129 tb/d or 2.3% m-o-m to 5.44 mb/d. On a y-o-y basis, China’s crude oil imports increased by 176 tb/d or 3.3%. Product imports have registered a decrease of 198 tb/d or 20.5% in April, m-o-m. On a y-o-y basis, there was a decrease of 314 tb/d or 29.1%. China’s crude oil exports in April decreased by around 36 tb/d or 74.8% to a current level of 12 tb/d from a level of 49 tb/d m-o-m. Comparing the crude exports on a y-o-y basis, there has been a decrease of 59 tb/d or 82.8%. Oil product exports in April decreased by around 16.5% or 84 tb/d m-o-m. Y-o-y, they dropped by 205 tb/d or 32.7%. As a result, China’s total net oil imports decreased in April by 207 tb/d or 3.5% m-o-m to stand at 5.77 mb/d. The decrease can be attributed mainly to product net imports which decreased by 114 tb/d or 24.9% to a level of 0.34 mb/d. The top five suppliers to the Chinese market were Saudi Arabia with 1.07 mb/d (19.7%), followed by Angola with 0.92 mb/d (16.9%), Russia with 0.45 mb/d (8.3%) and Oman with 0.36 mb/d (6.6%).

India’s crude oil imports increased 38 tb/d or 1.1% m-o-m in April to stand at a level of 3.57 mb/d. Y-o-y, India’s crude oil imports decreased by 166 tb/d or 4.4% compared to the 2011 level. Product imports in April increased by 60.0 tb/d or 21.6% compared to the previous month to an average of 336 tb/d. The rise of diesel and fuel oil imports in April was the main contributors to this increase. In y-o-y terms, product imports are 55 tb/d or 14.0% lower this year. On the export side, products decreased by 174 tb/d or 14.3% in April m-o-m, to stand at 1.04 mb/d. The decrease was caused by reduced exports of naphtha, jet fuel and fuel oil, representing 119.0 tb/d (43.1%), 18.7 tb/d (27.3%) and 15.4 tb/d (12.7%), respectively. Product exports decreased by 150.0 tb/d or 12.6% in April y-o-y. As a result, India’s net oil imports increased 271 tb/d or 10.5% to an average of 2.87 mb/d. On a y-o-y comparison, there was a decrease of 71 tb/d or 2.4%.

Total FSU crude exports rose by 4.3% to 6.62 mb/d. The increased supply could be attributed to the tendency of Russian companies to boost their exports during the scheduled refinery maintenance of April and May. Pipeline crude exports also rose by 5.0% to 4.28 mb/d compared to the month before. Supplies of Russian ESPO Blend to China rose by 3.3% to 309 tb/d in May, while exports from Russia’s far eastern port of Kozmino increased by 11.6% to 318 tb/d. CPC exports rose by 26.3% to 753 tb/d and BTC Blend exports slightly declined by 1.5% to 735 tb/d. The Kazakh crude transit shipments through Russia by rail declined by 14.7% in April to 168 tb/d after increased shipments in March, which were the result of increased deliveries of Tengiz crude to the Ukrainian port of Feodosiya. Along the Transneft pipeline system, the overall crude exports from Russia increased to 4.28 mb/d despite some changes in flows. Black sea exports rose by 7.8% to 907 tb/d compared to the month before. Baltic exports increased sharply by 29.7% to 1.88 mb/d as Russian producers searched for outlets to sell extra Urals normally taken by domestic refiners currently undergoing maintenance.

FSU total product exports rose in April by 4.0% or 368 tb/d to 2.84 mb/d. The m-o-m increase was due to a rise in vacuum gasoil, which increased by 68 tb/d or 38.0% to a level of 247 tb/d, and naphtha, which increased by 46 tb/d or 17.3% to a level of 312 tb/d on the month. offsetting a decline in gasoil by 71 tb/d or 7.9% to a level of 831 tb/d.

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