Caspian and China Oil Supply – June 2012

Source: OPEC 7/3/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s oil supply is expected to increase by 20 tb/d over 2011 to average 1.62 mb/d in 2012, unchanged from the previous month. This growth is expected on the back of less maintenance and unplanned shutdowns in 2012, compared with the previous year. However, the start-up of the Kashagan field, if realized this year, will support output in 2012. January–April production, according to a preliminary sounding, indicates that supply decreased by 40 tb/d from the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, Kazakhstan’s supply is seen to stand at 1.62 mb/d, 1.60 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d and 1.65 mb/d respectively.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is anticipated to increase by 20 tb/d in 2012 to 0.97 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month. This revision is the result of updated production data in the first quarter, as well as adjustments to the rest of the year. The supply forecast is associated with a high level of risk, mainly on technical issues which had an impact on output in 2011. On a quarterly basis, supply is estimated to average 0.96 mb/d, 0.97 mb/d, 0.97 mb/d and 1.00 mb/d respectively.

China’s oil production is forecast to average 4.22 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 70 tb/d over 2011, unchanged from the previous assessment. During January–April, supply declined by 70 tb/d from the same period a year ago. The current oil supply forecast is for an increase in the second half of 2012, on the expectation of a return of normal operations in the Peng Lai oil field. However, a recent report suggested that a new spill was detected at the same field, which could delay its full restart and require a downward revision in the future. On a quarterly basis, supply is projected to average 4.16 mb/d, 4.17 mb/d, 4.22 mb/d and 4.30 mb/d respectively.


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