Balance of Supply and Demand - Aug 12

Source: OPEC_RP120812 8/10/2012, Location: Europe

Forecast for 2012
Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 is projected to average 29.9 mb/d, about 80,000 b/d lower than last month’s estimate, due mainly to an upward revision to non-OPEC supply, since demand has remained unchanged. Within the quarters, 1Q12 remains unchanged. 2Q12 sees an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d, while 3Q12 and 4Q12 have been revised down by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively. Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 shows a decrease of 0.1 mb/d from last year. 1Q12 is estimated to decline by 0.6 mb/d versus the same quarter last year; 2Q12 and 3Q12 are projected to increase by 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively, while 4Q12 is forecast to decline by 0.2 mb/d.

Forecast for 2013
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 has been revised down by 0.1 mb, reflecting the upward revision to non-OPEC supply as global demand remains unchanged. 1Q13 and 2Q13 see downward adjustments of 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively, while 3Q13 and 4Q13 remains unchanged. The required OPEC crude is forecast to average 29.5 mb/d, which is 0.4 mb/d lower than in 2012. 1Q13 is estimated to increase by 0.1 mb/d versus the same quarter last year, while the other quarters are expected to see negative growth, with the bulk of the decrease coming from 2Q13, falling by 0.5 mb/d. 3Q13 and 4Q13 are forecast to drop by 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively.


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