Caspian and China Oil Supply – August 2012

Source: OPEC 9/12/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s oil production is projected to remain relatively steady in 2012, compared with the previous year, with a minor increase of 10 tb/d to average 1.61 mb/d, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Despite this steady state, the second quarter’s supply estimate was revised down on the back of updated production data, yet it did not affect the annual figure. The shutdown of various operations due to maintenance affected Kazakhstan supply in the first half of 2012, with average output declining by 30 tb/d from the same period a year earlier. Kazakhstan’s production is seen to improve in the second half of 2012, on expected lower maintenance-related output shutdowns. On a quarterly basis, it is estimated to stand at 1.62 mb/d, 1.57 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d and 1.65 mb/d respectively.

Azerbaijan’s oil production is forecast to remain steady in 2012, compared with the previous year, and average 0.96 mb/d, constituting a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month. The revision was introduced to adjust for updated production figures in the second quarter that were lower than expected. Azerbaijan’s supply in the first half of 2012 declined by 60 tb/d from the same period a year earlier.

This was driven by maintenance and natural decline, coupled with limited new developments. The West Chirag project, the main new development in Azerbaijan at the Azeri-Chirag- Guneshli (ACG) field, which is expected to add 100 tb/d, is seen to start up by late- 2013. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s supply is forecast to stand at 0.96 mb/d, 0.92 mb/d, 0.96 mb/d, and 0.99 mb/d respectively. Other FSU oil supply is expected to average 0.44 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 20 tb/d on the previous year and a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the last MOMR. The downward was introduced on the back of a historical data adjustment.

China’s oil supply is forecast to average 4.21 mb/d in 2012, which is 0.07 mb/d higher than in the previous year and represents a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the last MOMR. The revision was introduced in the second quarter to adjust for updated production data that was lower than expected. Output from the offshore Bohai Bay installation showed some reduction, as well as from the Daqing field. Despite the downward revision, China’s supply is expected to reach a new record in 2012, supported by new barrels coming from offshore developments. It is seen to improve in the second half of 2012. According to preliminary data, it averaged 4.16 mb/d during the first half of 2012, a decrease of 60 tb/d from the same period of 2011. On a quarterly basis, it is seen to stand at 4.16 mb/d, 4.16 mb/d, 4.22 mb/d and 4.30 mb/d respectively.


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