Balance of Supply and Demand - Dec 05

Source: OPEC_RP051213 12/16/2005, Location: Europe

The demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is forecast at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.62 mb/d from 2004 to remain unchanged from earlier projections. On a quarterly basis the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d, 27.3 mb/d, 28.4 mb/d and 30.3 mb/d for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters respectively. In terms of OPEC capacity, taking into account the supply/demand balance, the resulting demand for OPEC crude and projected production capacity, OPECís spare capacity is now estimated to average around 8% in the fourth quarter, compared to 4.9% in the same period of 2004.

Forecast for 2006
For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.7 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 134,000 b/d from last monthís report. The quarterly distribution shows that demand for OPEC crude is now expected at 29.9 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.7 mb/d in the second, 28.1 mb/d in the third and 29.2 mb/d in the fourth. In terms of OPEC capacity, OPEC capacity in 2006 is expected to average around 33.5 mb/d ending the year at around 33.9 mb/d. This level is expected to be sufficient to cover demand needs for OPEC crude.


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