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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply – October 2012

Source: OPEC 10/20/2012, Location: North America

Oil production from Canada is forecast to increase by 0.25 mb/d in 2012 to average 3.81 mb/d, an upward revision of 25 tb/d from the previous assessment. The second quarter was revised down on the back of updated production data, while the third and fourth quarters were revised up on updated preliminary production figures that were carried over to the rest of the year.

The preliminary data in the early part of the third quarter indicated a healthy supply increase from the previous quarter for crude, oil sand and NGL output. Shale oil supply growth, as well as the ramp-up of the Fire Bag project, supported the upward revision. Canada’s expected growth in 2012 is thus at the highest annual level since 1973. On a quarterly basis, the country’s supply is seen to average 3.81 mb/d, 3.70 mb/d, 3.86 mb/d and 3.85 mb/d respectively. During the first half of 2012, it increased by 0.32 mb/d, compared with the same period in 2011.

Mexico’s oil output is forecast to decline by 0.02 mb/d in 2012 to average 2.92 mb/d, indicating a minor upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision affected third-quarter oil supply, on updated production data for August and part of September. August oil supply reached the highest level so far in 2012, supported by minor increases from the Cantarell, Chicontepec and Ku-Maloob-Zaap fields, comparedwith the previous month. According to preliminary data, Mexico’s oil supply averaged 2.93 mb/d during the first three quarters of 2012, down 20 tb/d from the same period of 2011.

So far in 2012, the country’s supply stabilization effort is showing positive signs. Moreover, the output increase experienced at the Chicontepec field is seen to support production, in spite of the difficulties surrounding the field’s development. On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s supply is seen to stand at 2.92 mb/d, 2.93 mb/d, 2.93 mb/d and 2.89 mb/d respectively.

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