Caspian and China Oil Supply – October 2012

Source: OPEC 10/25/2012, Location: Asia

Kazakh oil supply is forecast to decline by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 1.58 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 30 tb/d from the previous month. This revision came on the back of updated production data in part of the third quarter, as August oil supply came sharply down. Kazakh supply in August declined by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month. This monthly decline came from the Tengiz field which was under maintenance. The downward revision was partially carried over to the fourth quarter. During the first eight months, Kazakh production declined by 30 tb/d from the same period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, it is seen to stand at 1.62 mb/d, 1.57 mb/d, 1.52 mb/d and 1.62 mb/d respectively.

Azerbaijan’s oil supply is forecast to drop 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.94 mb/d, which is a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous MOMR. This revision was introduced to the second half supply estimates. Updated production data for the early parts of the third quarter showed that output remained below expectations, which necessitated the downward revision in the third quarter. The weak production data is seen on the back of maintenance and an unscheduled shutdown at the Azeri-Chirag- Guneshli (ACG) facilities. Reports indicated that the ACG field produced 685 tb/d during the first half of 2012, sharply below the average of 823 tb/d in 2010. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s output is seen to stand at 0.96 mb/d, 0.92 mb/d, 0.91 mb/d and 0.96 mb/d respectively.

China’s oil production is expected to increase by 60 tb/d in 2012 to average 4.19 mb/d, a downward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. This revision was to adjust for updated production data in the third quarter that was partially carried over to the rest of the year. Preliminary production data indicated that China’s output increased in August from the previous month, supported by an increase in offshore production that was curtailed in June. The restart of the Peng Lai field remains unknown, and yet it is expected within 2012. According to preliminary and estimated data, China’s supply averaged 4.16 mb/d during the first three quarters, unchanged from the same period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, it is expected to average 4.16 mb/d, 4.16 mb/d, 4.17 mb/d and 4.27 mb/d respectively.


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