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Asia Oil Supply – November 2012

Source: OPEC 11/20/2012, Location: Asia

Other Asia’s oil production is estimated to decrease by 20 tb/d in 2012 to average 3.61 mb/d, representing a minor downward revision of less than 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The revisions occurred for the second half, mainly to adjust for updated production figures in the third quarter that were partly carried over to the fourth. India’s supply is seen to remain steady in 2012 and average 0.88 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month.

It was revised down slightly in the third quarter, but did not affect the annual level. Vietnam’s supply is expected to average 0.39 mb/d in 2012, an increase of 40 tb/d from the year before and steady from the previous MOMR. The expected growth is supported by different projects including Su Tu Trang. The Vietnamese authorities revised up the country’s output forecast for 2012 as current data indicated healthy production levels. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is seen to stand at 3.65 mb/d, 3.56 mb/d, 3.59 mb/d and 3.66 mb/d respectively.

Oil supply from Indonesia, the region’s largest producer, is expected to decline by 60 tb/d in 2012 to average 0.97 mb/d. This drop was anticipated, since natural declines have affected output, together with limited volumes from new developments in 2012, as well as unplanned shutdowns and land-clearing issues that delayed permits. Indonesia’s supply estimates were revised down by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR on updated production data in the third quarter that was partly carried over to the fourth quarter. Indonesian government authorities revised down their output forecast for 2012 due to the low production figures so far. Malaysia’s supply is forecast to average 0.65 mb/d in 2012, steady from the previous year and the last MOMR.

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