India & Indonesian Oil Demand in October 2012

The effect of India’s total massive power shutdown has been seen in the country’s diesel demand for the third straight month in the row. This has led to the use of independent diesel-operated power-generation. The summer is the peak season for oil use in India, for various reasons. High oil demand in the summer is attributed to the transport, agricultural and industrial sectors.

Diesel demand grew by more than 0.2 mb/d in the past three months. Oil demand has exceeded expectations this year for the above reasons, as well as improved economic activity during the year. The early forecast was set at 3.4% oil demand growth for the year; however, the current estimate is at 4.4%. As for September, the two most consumed petroleum products were diesel and LPG, with average consumption growth of 0.2 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d. Diesel alone grew by 11.8% in the first three quarters of the year, followed by gasoline with growth of 6.3% in the same period. This led to total oil demand growth for the same period of 6.4% or 0.22 mb/d y-o-y, averaging 3.6 mb/d.

According to the data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, car sales in India fell by 5% in September y-o-y, as a result of pessimism about the overall economic situation of the country, relatively high fuel prices and high interest rates. As for the entire year, sales are forecast to grow by 4% overall. Taiwan’s oil demand has been on the decline for the past seven quarters.

This weakness is attributed mostly to economic activity related to the industrial sector. In the first nine months of the year, demand slid down by 2.8% y-o-y or 30 tb/d. Most of the decline was related to the lower use of fuel oil. Indonesian oil demand grew by 2% in the first three quarters of this year, in comparison with the same period last year, adding another 26 tb/d to the country’s total demand. This came about despite declines in both diesel and fuel oil use. Gasoline demand inched up by 6% in September, leading to a total use of half a million barrels. As for the first three quarters of the year, Indonesia consumed 1.3 mb/d, denoting growth of 3.3% or 44 tb/d. This growth is attributed to a growing economy and minor subsidies for some oil product consumption. Given the strong oil demand by India, Other Asia’s oil demand growth is estimated at 0.29 mb/d y-o-y in 2012.