Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 13

Source: OPEC_RP130212 2/12/2013, Location: Europe

Forecast for 2012
Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 remains unchanged from the previous report as world oil demand and non-OPEC supply saw only a minor adjustment. However, within the quarters, 4Q12 saw an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d, reflecting mainly the upward adjustment of demand as actual data has become available. The first three quarters remain unchanged from the previous assessment. Demand for OPEC crude stood at 30.1 mb/d in 2012, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year’s level. The first quarter is estimated to decline by 0.5 mb/d versus the same period a year ago; the second to increase by 0.4 mb/d, while the third is seen declining 0.3 mb/d. The fourth quarter is estimated to remain unchanged.

Forecast for 2013
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 has been revised up by 0.1 mb/d from the previous report to stand at 29.8 mb/d. This represents negative growth of 0.3 mb/d compared to 2012. The upward revision came from an adjustment in world oil demand, as non-OPEC supply remained broadly unchanged. The first and second quarters saw an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d, while the third remained unchanged from the previous report. The fourth quarter experienced an upward revision of 0.3 mb/d. The first quarter is estimated to increase by 0.2 mb/d versus a year ago; while the second and third are expected to see negative growth of 0.6 mb/d and 0.7 mb/d, respectively. The fourth quarter is forecast to drop by 0.1 mb/d from the same quarter last year.


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