Caspian and China Oil Supply – February 2013

Source: OPEC 2/21/2013, Location: Asia

Kazakhstan’s oil production is seen to increase by 70 tb/d to average 1.66 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous MOMR. The startup of the Kashagan is seen as the main driver of the growth in 2013. The major field is seen to start up in the 2H13. On a quarterly basis, Kazakh oil supply is seen to average 1.62 mb/d, 1.61 mb/d, 1.65 mb/d and 1.73 mb/d, respectively.

Oil supply in Azerbaijan is estimated to decrease by 40 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.86 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 10 t/d from the previous MOMR. This revision has come on the back of a historical adjustment to the 4Q12 estimate and has affected the 2013 forecast. Azeri output is expected to decline on the back of limited new developments as well as decline in mature producing areas. On a quarterly basis, Azerbaijan’s oil supply is seen to stand at 0.89 mb/d, 0.85 mb/d, 0.85 mb/d and 0.87 mb/d, respectively.

Oil supply from China is predicted to increase by 60 tb/d over 2012 to average 4.27 mb/d in 2013, indicating an upward revision of 15 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The upward revision came partially on the back of updated production data in the 4Q. Additionally, the ramp-up of the Peng Lai project further supported the upward revision.

On the other hand, cold weather impacted the output at Bohai Bay as well as a hull crack that is delaying drilling activities, partially offsetting the upward revision. On a quarterly basis, China’s oil supply is seen to average 4.30 mb/d, 4.26 mb/d, 4.26 mb/d and 4.27 mb/d, respectively.




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