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FSU and Russia Oil Supply – Feb 2013

Source: OPEC 2/27/2012, Location: Asia

Total FSU oil production is expected to average 13.41 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 0.10 mb/d over 2012, indicating a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d compared with the previous MOMR. The downward revisions came in part from historical data, in addition to minor changes to individual country supply estimates in 2013. Growth is expected from Russia and Kazakhstan.

Limited new developments, coupled with declines in mature areas, as well as fiscal issues, have reduced anticipated growth in the FSU in 2013. However, the FSU remains the leading region, in terms of production among all non-OPEC regions. FSU production is expected to maintain a 25% share of global output for the year. On a quarterly basis, total oil supply from the FSU is seen to average 13.39 mb/d, 13.34 mb/d, 13.39 mb/d and 13.50 mb/d, respectively. China’s oil supply is seen to grow by 60 tb/d to average 4.27 mb/d in 2013. Other Europe’s supply is expected to remain steady and average 0.14 mb/d in 2013.

Russian oil production is forecast to increase by 50 tb/d to average 10.42 mb/d in 2013, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Russia’s oil supply is expected to remain steady throughout the year, with new additions expected to offset decline from mature areas.

The Vankor oil field is expected to average 435 tb/d in 2013, a minor increase from the level of 410 tb/d achieved by the end of 2012. Some operators provided that new technologies will be utilized to stop natural decline. On the other hand, the supply forecast remains associated with a high level of risk, due to technical, political, geological and price factors. On a quarterly basis, Russian oil supply is expected to average 10.43 mb/d, 10.42 mb/d, 10.42 mb/d and 10.42 mb/d, respectively. Preliminary figures indicate that Russian oil production stood at 10.46 mb/d in January, steady from the previous month.

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