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Asia Oil Supply – March 2013

Source: OPEC 4/7/2013, Location: Asia

Asia’s oil supply is predicted to average 3.62 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 30 tb/d over the previous year and flat from a month earlier. Despite this steady state, minor revisions have been carried out, compared with the previous MOMR, but these have offset each other. India’s and Malaysia’s oil supply projections were revised.

India’s supply is forecast to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.88 mb/d, representing a minor downward revision of 10 tb/d. This was the result of historical data updates, where output during the fourth quarter of 2012 was slightly below expectations. Furthermore, preliminary data indicated that January’s supply was below December’s and lower than the government’s target. The drop in India’s supply in 2012 was driven by the declines in offshore fields, which are expected to continue in 2013 and offset the growth in other onshore facilities.

Malaysia’s production outlook in 2013 was revised up by a minor 10 tb/d, with output expected to increase by 50 tb/d from the previous year and average 0.70 mb/d. This growth is supported by the ramp-up of the Gumusut Kakap development.

Thailand’s supply is expected to remain steady in 2013 and average 0.34 mb/d, a minor decline of 10 tb/d. In 2012, it increased on the back of NGL growth, which is seen to support output in 2013 and offset some of the anticipated declines from mature areas.

Vietnam’s supply is forecast to average 0.40 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 10 tb/d from the previous year. This is supported by the ramp-up of the Te Giac Trang field. On a quarterly basis, Other Asia’s supply is expected to stand at 3.59 mb/d, 3.62 mb/d, 3.63 mb/d and 3.65 mb/d respectively.

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