Balance of Supply and Demand - Apr 13

Source: OPEC_RP130412 4/12/2013, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2012
The demand for OPEC crude stood at 30.2 mb/d in 2012, representing a decrease of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year. This represents an upward adjustment of around 0.1 mb/d from the previous assessment, as demand and non-OPEC supply experienced opposite revisions on actual data.

In quarterly terms, the first quarter remained unchanged, while the third and fourth were revised up by 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively. The first quarter is estimated to have declined by 0.4 mb/d versus the same quarter last year. The second is estimated to have increased by 0.5 mb/d, while the third and fourth show a decline of 0.2 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d respectively compared to the same quarters of 2011.

Forecast for 2013
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 remained slightly unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.7 mb/d. This represents negative growth of 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2012 level. Within the quarters, the first remained unchanged, while the second and third experienced an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d. In contrast, the fourth quarter was revised down by 0.1 mb/d.

The first quarter is estimated to remain unchanged versus the same quarter last year, whiel the second and third are expected to see negative growth of 0.8 mb/d each. The fourth quarter is forecast to remain unchanged compared to the same period a year ago.


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