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Middle East Oil Supply - April 2013

Source: OPEC 4/29/2013, Location: Middle East

The Middle East’s oil production is expected to remain steady in 2013 and average 1.50 mb/d, indicating a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous month. This adjustment came from Bahrain, while other producers’ supply forecasts remained steady. Bahrain’s supply is expected to average 0.20 mb/d in 2013, a minor increase of 10 tb/d from the previous year and a downward revision of 10 tb/d from the last MOMR. Updated estimated production data indicated lower output and required the minor adjustment to the country’s supply.

Oman’s production is expected to average 0.94 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 30 tb/d over last year. This is supported by enhanced oil recovery projects. Syria’s production is expected to average 0.16 mb/d in 2013, a drop of 40 tb/d from the previous year, and this is driven by the ongoing political turmoil. Yemen’s supply outlook for 2013 is expected to increase slightly from the previous year. Attacks on oil infrastructure continue in Yemen and could bring about a downward revision as output data becomes available. On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply is expected to average 1.49 mb/d, 1.49 mb/d, 1.50 mb/d, and 1.51 mb/d respectively.

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