Balance of Supply and Demand - Apr 06

Source: OPEC_RP060413 4/18/2006, Location: Europe

Estimate for 2005: The estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) has been revised to 28.8 m/d, representing an increase of 0.6 mb/d from last year and a revision of 0.1 mb/d. In the same year, OPEC crude production averaged 29.9 mb/d, and this contributed to a 1 mb/d build in OECD inventories during the year.

Forecast for 2006: In 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.5 mb/d (versus 29.6 mb/d production now), representing an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d versus last month. On a quarterly basis, the new forecast shows the demand for OPEC crude at 29.9 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.8 mb/d in the second, 28 mb/d in the third and 28.3 mb/d in the fourth, representing an upward revision of 0.4 mb/d in the second quarter, and a negative revision of 0.1 mb/d in the third. Preliminary data indicates that in 1Q06 there was a stock draw of 0.25 mb/d.


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