Preliminary data for August shows total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 10.4 mb,
reversing the build of the last month and ending August at 2,668 mb. At this level,
inventories were around 68 mb below the five-year average and showed a deficit of
53 mb compared with the same period a year ago. Within the components, supply
disruptions combined with high refinery crude runs led to a further decline in OECD
commercial crude inventories, dropping by nearly 20 mb. In contrast, product stocks
continued to show a steady increase by 9.5 mb on the back of a seasonal rise in
refinery throughputs. On a regional basis, the picture was mixed; OECD Asia-Pacific
saw a build of 4.3 mb, while OECD Europe experienced a drop of 14.4 mb compared
with the previous month. OECD Americasí inventories remained almost unchanged
versus the previous month.
In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell slightly by 0.1 day in
August to stand at 58.6 days. This represents around 0.1 days above the five-year
average, some 0.5 days lower than in the same month last year. OECD Americas was
1.1 days above the historical average and stood at 57.5 days, while Europe and Asia-
Pacific indicated deficits of 0.5 and 0.6 days, averaging 65.2 and 50.9 days,
At 1,246 mb, OECD crude commercial stocks in August stood at 51.7 mb below the
same period one year earlier and 28.8 mb below the five-year average. Product
stocks ended the month at 1,422 mb, showing a deficit of 39.1 mb with the seasonal
average and a slight deficit of 1.5 mb compared with the previous year.
OECD Americasí inventories fell slightly by 0.3 mb for the second consecutive month
to end August at 1,360 mb. Despite this stock-draw, inventories in OECD Americas are
at comfortable levels, indicating a surplus of 16.3 mb over the seasonal norm, but they
showed a slight deficit of 1.5 mb with the same time last year. The total surplus with
the five-year average is concentrated in products as crude inventories are in line with
the historical average. OECD Americasí crude inventories fell by 6.3 mb for the third
consecutive month, driven by lower US crude imports as well as higher crude runs. In
contrast, products continued their build to increase by 6.0 mb, accumulating a nearly
55-mb stock-build since last April. This build is mainly due to higher US refinery
throughput as the utilisation rate reached 92%.
OECD Europeís inventories fell by 14.4 mb in August, reversing the build of a month
earlier to stand at 889 mb. With this draw, the deficit from the previous month has
widened to stand at 51.2 mb below last year and 85.0 mb lower than the seasonal
norm. This shortage is attributed to both crude and products, which indicated a deficit of 27.5 mb and 57.5 mb, respectively. Crude commercial stocks in OECD Europe fell
by 7.0 mb, driven mainly by limited crude exports as well as summer maintenance in
some North Sea fields. Product stocks also fell by 7.4 mb on the back of a lower
refinery utilisation rate.
Commercial inventories in OECD Asia-Pacific rose by 4.3 mb in August, following a
build in the last two months, and stood at 419 mb. At this level, they were almost in line
with the same period a year ago and the five-year average. Within the components,
the total build came from products, which rose by 10.9 mb, while crude saw a drop of
6.6 mb. Crude inventories stood at 3.9 mb below a year ago but are in line with the
five-year average. OECD Asia-Pacificís total product inventories indicate a surplus of
3.3 mb over a year ago and 1.5 mb over the seasonal norm.
EU plus Norway
Preliminary data for August shows that European stocks fell by 14.4 mb, reversing
the build of the previous month to stand at 1,059.7 mb. At this level, they are 15.5 mb
or 1.4% below the same period a year ago, and 54.7 mb or 4.9% below the latest fiveyear
average. Both crude and products experienced a stock-draw, declining by 7.0 mb
and 7.4 mb, respectively.
European crude inventories fell in August, reversing the build of last month, to stand at
455.2 mb. At this level, European crude oil stocks were 2.5 mb or 1.2% below the same
period last year and represent a deficit of 10.8 mb or 2.3% compared with the latest fiveyear
average. Supply outages, combined with summer maintenance in Forties, have
limited crude supply in the European market and led to the fall in crude oil stocks. Lower
refinery crude runs limited a further drop in crude oil inventories. Indeed, refiners have
decreased crude runs by around 125,000 b/d from the previous month. At 10.3 mb/d,
runs were about 823,000 b/d lower than a year earlier. This corresponds to utilisation
rates of just under 82% compared with 86% in August a year earlier. European crude
inventories are expected to rise in September, driven by lower crude runs amid refinery
Product stocks in Europe also saw a decline of 7.4 mb in August, following the slight
stock-draw of the last month. At 604.5 mb, European product stocks represented a
deficit of 3.9 mb or 0.6% over the same period last year and remained some 43.9 mb or 6.8% below the latest five-year average. Within products, with the exception of
gasoline, all other products experienced a drop.
Gasoline stocks rose by 1.3 mb, reversing the fall of the previous month and ending
August at 109.3 mb. At this level, they represent a surplus of 5.3 mb or 5.1% over a
year ago, but they are 2.3 mb or 2.1% less than the five-year average. Lower demand
on both sides of the Atlantic was behind the build in gasoline stocks. However, lower
gasoline production has limited a further build in gasoline inventories.
In contrast, distillate stocks fell by 7.1 mb in August, reversing the build of nearly
13 mb during the last two months, to stand at 381.4 mb. Despite this build, they still
represented a deficit of 8.1 mb or 2.1% with the previous year, and they are 20.3 mb or
5.1% below the seasonal norm. The stock-draw mainly reflected lower distillate output
as demand remained weaker in the region.
Residual fuel oil stocks fell slightly by 0.3 mb, following last monthís stock-draw,
ending August at 86.5 mb. Despite this stock-draw, they were 2.0 mb or 2.4% above
the same time last year, but remained 17.6 mb or 16.9% below the seasonal average.
Lower residual fuel output contributed to the fall in residual fuel stocks, while weaker
demand in the region and higher stocks in Singapore limiting export opportunities has
prevented further residual fuel stock-draws.
Preliminary data for September shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by
4.5 mb, reversing the drop of the last two months, to stand at 1,125.8 mb. At this level,
inventories stood at 2.4 mb, or 0.2%, above last year at the same time and indicated a
gain of 33.0 mb, or 3.0%, over the five-year average. The stock-build was attributed to
crude and products, which increased by 3.5 mb or 1.0 mb, respectively. During the
week ending 4 October, US commercial crude stocks jumped by 6.8 mb amid a sharp
cut in US refinery runs.
US commercial crude stocks rose by 3.5 mb, reversing the build of the last four
months to end September at 363.7 mb. With this build, US crude oil commercial stocks
finished the month at 23.7 mb or 7.0% above the five-year average, while they were
5.3 mb or 1.4% lower than a year ago at the same time.
The bulk of the stock-build came during the last week of September, driven by lower
crude runs, which fell by 146,000 b/d to 15.5 mb due to large planned and unplanned
maintenance. The US refinery utilisation rate fell by 1.3 percentage points (pp) to 89%
of capacity during the last week of September. For the whole month, the refinery
utilisation rate average 91.8%, 3.8% higher than last year at the same time. The
increase in crude oil imports during the last week of September also contributed to the
build in US commercial crude oil stocks. Indeed, US crude oil imports rose by 438,000
b/d to stand at 8.4 mb/d.
Inventories in Cushing continued to decline, dropping by nearly 4 mb in September
from a month earlier to stand at 32.8 mb. This is the 13th consecutive weekly
drawdown in Cushing, falling by nearly 20 mb since the week ending 24 May.
Total product stocks rose in September for the sixth consecutive month to stand at
762.0 mb, which is the highest level since September 2010. Since last April,
US product inventories accumulated more than 52 mb on the back of higher refinery
throughput. However, the build in September is much lower than the ones observed
during the previous months as refineries are entering the turnaround period.
US commercial product stocks stood at 7.6 mb or 1.0% higher than a year ago and
9.2 mb or 1.2% above the seasonal norm. Within products, the picture was mixed;
gasoline, jet fuel oil and propylene saw a stock-build, while residual fuel oil, distillates
and unfinished products witnessed drops.
Gasoline stocks rose by 3.7 mb, reversing the fall of the last two months and ending
September at 219.7 mb. With this build, they widened the surplus with a year earlier to
9.4% from 7.6 % the previous month. This build also helped to increase the gain with
the five-year average to 5.6% from 4.1% a month ago. A decline of around 350,000 b/d
in apparent demand contributed to the build in gasoline stocks. Higher gasoline output,
which increased by about 250,000 b/d, also supported the build in stocks.
In contrast, distillate stocks fell slightly, by 0.4 mb, in September, reversing the build
of the last four months, to stand at 216.0 mb. At this level, distillate stocks stood at
1.7 mb or 1.4% above a year ago but remained 20.5 mb or 13.7% lower than the
seasonal average. The last week of the month saw a drop of 1.7 mb compared to the
previous week, driven by higher demand as the rise in output was offset by the cut in
imports. The four-week average apparent demand stood at around 3.7 mb/d, holding at
the same level as last year, before peaking in winter.
Residual fuel oil stocks also fell by 2.0 mb to finish the month of September at 34.2 mb. At this level, they were 1.3 mb or 3.7% lower than a year ago but indicated a
deficit of 2.6 mb or 7.1% over the seasonal norm. In contrast, jet fuel stocks rose by
0.2 mb in September to stand at 39.8 mb, remaining 4.1 mb or 9.4% lower than the
same month a year ago and 4.4 mb or 9.9% below the latest five-year average.
In August, total commercial oil stocks in Japan declined by 4.7 mb for the third
consecutive month to stand at 160.7 mb. As this level, oil inventories are 15.7 mb or
8.9% below a year ago and 17.9 mb or 10.0% lower than the five-year average. Within
components, crude saw a stock-draw of 11.6 mb, while products increased by 6.9 mb.
Japanese commercial crude oil stocks saw a drop of 11.6 mb in August, following a
fall in the last two months, to stand at 84.8 mb. At this level, they were 16.6 mb or
16.4% below a year ago at the same time and 14.1 mb or 14.3% below the five-year
average. The drop in crude oil stocks was driven by higher crude throughput, which
rose by around 168,000 b/d or 4.9%, averaging 3.6 mb/d. At this level, they were also
4.0% higher than the same month a year ago. Japanese refiners were running at
82.6%, around 6.3 pp higher than in the previous month and 5.7 pp more than in the
same period last year.
Lower crude imports in August also contributed to the decline in crude oil stocks.
Indeed, crude oil imports fell by 45,000 b/d or 1.2% to average 3.4 mb/d. At this level,
they were also 4.5% lower than the same period last year. Direct crude burning in
power plants saw a significant increase of 25.5% compared to the previous month, but
were 10.1% lower than during the same period last year.
On the product side, Japanís total product inventories saw a build of 6.9 mb in
August, following an increase of 1.3 mb a month earlier, and stood at 75.9 mb, the
highest level since October 2012. With this build, they switched the deficit of the
previous month to a surplus of 0.9 mb or 1.2%, but remained below the latest five-year
average, indicating a deficit of 3.8 mb or 4.7%. Higher refinery output, which increased by 3.6% from the previous month, was behind the build in product inventories. At
3.3 mb/d, Japanese refinery output was 0.4% above the same period last year. A
significant rise in product imports of 30% also contributed to the build in Japanese
product stocks. However, the increase of total domestic sales of oil products by 0.5%
from a month ago to an average of 3.2 mb/d limited a further build in product stocks.
All the products witnessed builds, with the bulk coming from distillate stocks.
Distillate stocks rose by 4.9 mb in August for the third consecutive month, ending the
month at 36.0 mb. At this level, they were 1.5 mb or 4.5% above a year ago, but were
still 1.1 mb or 3.1% above the seasonal average. Within distillate components, gasoil
and kerosene stocks rose, while jet fuel stocks dropped. Kerosene inventories
increased by 24.6%, driven by higher output and a decline in domestic sales. Gasoil
also increased by 17.5% on the back of higher imports combined with healthy output.
In contrast, jet fuel stocks fell by 7.6% on the back of lower production and higher
Total residual fuel oil stocks went up by 0.9 mb to end the month of August at
15.8 mb. Despite this build, they are still 1.4 mb or 8.3% less than a year ago and
1.8 mb or 10.1% lower than the five-year average. Within the fuel oil components, fuel
oil A and fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 2.3% and 7.8%, respectively.
Gasoline stocks also rose by 0.6 mb in August, ending the month at 13.4 mb. At this
level, they are 0.5 mb or 3.7% less than the same time last year, but they are in line
with the five-year average. A rise of 6.8% in gasoline output combined with an increase
in imports were behind this stock-build, while higher domestic sales limited a further
build in gasoline stocks.
Naphtha stocks rose by 0.5 mb in August, reversing the fall of 1.2 mb in July.
At 10.7 mb, they represent a surplus of 1.3 mb or 13.5% compared with a year ago,
but they still showed a deficit of 0.9 mb or 7.4% with the seasonal norm. The build in
naphtha stocks came from higher production, which rose by 2.3%. The increase of
13.4% in imports also contributed to the build in naphtha gasoline stocks.
Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
Product stocks in Singapore rose by 5.9 mb, reversing the fall of the last two months
and ending August at 42.8 mb, which is the highest level since March 2012. With this
stock-build, product stocks in Singapore represent a surplus of 7.1 mb or almost 20%
higher than last year at the same period. All products saw a build, with the bulk of the
build coming from fuel oil.
Light distillate stocks rose by 1.6 mb, reversing the fall of the last four months,
ending August at 10.6 mb. With this stock-build, light distillate stocks stood at 1.9 mb
or 22.5% higher than a year ago at the same period. Weaker demand from Indonesia
was behind this increase. Higher shipments from China, India and South Korea also
contributed to the build in Singapore.
Middle distillate stocks also saw a build of 1.6 mb, reversing the fall of the last three
months and finishing the month of August at 9.4 mb. At this level, middle distillate stocks are in line with the level observed over the same period last year. Higher
imports of automotive diesel from Japan combined with lower demand from Indonesia
contributed to this build in middle distillate stocks.
Residual fuel oil saw the largest build, which increased by 2.8 mb in August, ending
the month at 22.8 mb. With this build, fuel oil stocks represented a surplus of 5.1 mb or
29% over the previous year at the same time. This stock-build was driven by higher
imports from the west combined with lower demand in the region, keeping inventories
in the Singapore hub at a higher level.
Product stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) rose by 1.3 mb in August,
reversing the fall of the last four months to stand at 30.1 mb. Despite this stock-build,
product stocks in ARA remained at 1.9 mb or 5.9% below a year ago. All products
experienced a build with the exception of naphtha.
Gasoline stocks rose by 0.3 mb, reversing the fall of the last three months and ending
August at 6.1 mb. At this level, gasoline stocks remained at 0.8 mb or 15.8% higher
than the same period last year. The build in gasoline stocks mainly reflects the arrival
of several cargoes in ARA from the Baltics. Gasoil also rose in August by 1.1 mb,
following the build of 0.4 mb in July and ending the month at 15.5 mb. Despite this
build, inventories remained at 2.4 mb or 13.5% below a year ago at the same time.
The build in gasoil stocks was limited by reduced barge traffic due to very low water
levels on the Rhine river.
Jet fuel stocks saw a build of 0.4 mb to end the month of August at 3.3 mb and
remained at 0.2 mb or 7.8 % above a year ago during the same period. This build was
driven by higher imports from Asia and South Africa. In contrast, naphtha stocks fell by
0.5 mb to finish the month of August at 0.5 mb, standing almost 50% lower than the
level seen at the same time last year.
Residual fuel oil stocks saw a build of 0.2 mb, reversing the drop of the last month
and ending August at 4.7 mb. At this level, ARA fuel oil stocks stood slightly higher
than a year ago, representing a surplus of 0.4%. Lower exports were the main driver
behind the build in fuel oil stocks.