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Canada and Mexico Oil Supply in November 2013

Source: OPEC 11/26/2013, Location: North America

Canadian oil supply is expected to increase by 0.23 mb/d in 2013 to average 4.14 mb/d, indicating an upward revision of 5 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. The expected growth in 2013 is the highest annual supply increase since 1979. The foreseen growth is supported by oil sands developments, as well as tight oil. The introduced revision came in the third quarter, reflecting updated production data. Despite the maintenance of some facilities during the third quarter, updated production data required the undertaken revision. The start-up of the Christina Lake 2B project, with an expected capacity of 35 tb/d, supported the upward revision. The upward revision came despite the minor impact from the distribution of gas supply for oil producers, due to pipeline issues. According to preliminary data, Canada’s oil supply averaged 4.04 mb/d in the third quarter of 2013, an increase of 260 tb/d from the second quarter and growth of 0.37 mb/d, compared to the third quarter a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, Canada’s oil supply in 2013 is expected to average 4.08 mb/d, 3.76 mb/d, 4.04 mb/d and 4.11 mb/d, respectively.

Mexico’s oil production is expected to decline by 40 tb/d in 2013 to average 2.86 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month. According to preliminary data, Mexico’s oil production experienced a minor increase in September and October over August, yet third quarter output indicated a decline of 20 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier. The drop is seen due to a decline in mature producing areas and limited new developments. The experienced increase in September came as the Ku- Maloob-Zaap field’s output returned to normal levels of around 870 tb/d. During the first three quarters, Mexico’s oil supply averaged 2.89 mb/d, a decline of 40 tb/d compared to the same period the previous year.

On a quarterly basis, Mexico’s oil supply in 2013 is seen to average 2.91 mb/d, 2.87 mb/d, 2.88 mb/d and 2.86 mb/d, respectively.

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