Balance of Supply and Demand - Feb 14

Source: OPEC_RP140212 2/12/2014, Location: Europe

Demand for OPEC crude remained unchanged in 2013 and 2014, however some upward revisions were observed during 4Q13. The demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.9 mb/d in 2013, representing a decrease of 0.5 mb/d from the 2012 level. In 2014, required OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d less than last year.

Estimate for 2013
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 remained unchanged from the previous report as world oil demand and non-OPEC supply saw minor adjustments. Within the quarters, the first three quarters were unchanged, while 4Q was revised up by 0.1 mb/d. Demand for OPEC crude stood at 29.9 mb/d in 2013, representing a decrease of 0.5 mb/d from the year ago level. 1Q is estimated to fall by 0.2 mb/d versus the same quarter of the previous year, and 2Q and 3Q are expected to see negative growth of 0.5 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively. 4Q is estimated to drop by 0.7 mb/d versus the same quarter of the previous year.

Forecast for 2014
Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.6 mb/d as both world oil demand and non-OPEC supply both saw similar upward revisions. Within the quarters, all quarters remained unchanged. The demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 29.6 mb/d in 2014, representing a decrease of 0.3 mb/d from the previous year’s level. 1Q and 2Q are estimated to show a decline of 0.2 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively, versus the same period a year earlier. 3Q is expected to see negative growth of 0.2 mb/d, while 4Q is forecast to drop much higher, by 0.7 mb/d, versus the same quarter of the previous year.


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