Middle East oil supply is estimated to decrease by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 from a year earlier to average 1.35 mb/d, with a downward revision by 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The region’s total supply was revised down by 0.31 mb/d in 2013 due to the downward revision in Syria’s output, which carried over all quarters in 2013 and 2012 as well. On a quarterly basis, the region’s production in 2013 registered an average of 1.40 mb/d, 1.32 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d and 1.33 mb/d, respectively.
The Middle East’s oil supply forecast is generally associated with a very high level of risk — mainly due to political factors — which could dramatically change the outlook in either direction. Middle East oil output is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d to average 1.37 mb/d in 2014 compared with the previous year. The numbers have also seen an upward revision of 20 tb/d since the previous MOMR.
On a quarterly basis, Middle East supply in 2014 is seen to average 1.34 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d, 1.38 mb/d and 1.39 mb/d, respectively.
Oman’s supply is estimated to increase by 20 tb/d in 2013 to average 0.94 mb/d, unchanged compared with the previous estimation. Oman’s output is also expected to increase by 30 tb/d to average 0.97 mb/d in 2014, if mature field production declines as before.
Syria’s production is expected to drop by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 60 tb/d. This downward movement is due to the country’s current political situation, which is associated with a high level of risk. Syria's oil fields remain relatively unaffected in terms of damage from fighting and sabotage, but limited opportunities exist to export crude and other liquids, and limited domestic refining capacity has resulted in shut-in production. Prolonged shut-ins can reduce the effective capacity of some fields, and a new assessment estimates that Syria's production capacity — the level of production that could return within one year — has dropped by nearly 100 tb/d since the start of the conflict for this reason. Nevertheless, at a meeting with oil company chiefs on 15 February, the Syrian Minister of Petroleum and Minerals disclosed that the country’s crude oil production had fallen by 96% from levels seen before the crisis of 385 tb/d. Syrian oil production is expected to drop by another 30 tb/d on annual basis to average 30 tb/d in 2014.
Yemen’s production is expected to average 0.14 mb/d in 2013, a decrease of 40 tb/d from a year earlier, but output is expected to increase by 10 tb/d to average 0.15 mb/d in 2014. Due to continued attacks on infrastructure, the supply forecast is at a high risk.
