Latin America’s oil supply is projected to increase by 0.14 mb/d over 2013 to average 4.92 mb/d in 2014. This growth is supported by Brazil, while other countries’ supply within the region is seen to decline in the current year. Colombia’s production is expected to decline by 30 tb/d over 2013 to average 1.00 mb/d in 2014. Moreover, risks remain associated with the forecast, mainly related to security and transport issues. Argentina’s supply is also seen to decline by 10 tb/d in 2014, averaging 0.66 mb/d. New volume is expected from the expansion of biofuel production as well as from pilot programmes at the Vaca Muerta basin. The anticipated decline in mature areas is seen to offset new volume. Oil production in “Latin America others” will remain stagnant at 0.33 mb/d in 2014. On a quarterly basis, Latin America’s supply in 2014 is seen to average 4.84 mb/d, 4.83 mb/d, 4.97 mb/d and 5.05 mb/d, respectively.
Brazil’s production is expected to average 2.83 mb/d in 2014, indicating growth of 0.19 mb/d over the previous year. The growth is supported by a long list of project startups and ramp-ups, such as Bauna (FPSO Cidade de) and North Whales Park or Parque Das Baleias (P-58). Moreover, biofuel supplies are expected to increase in 2014 and support output. However, a high level of risk is associated with the forecast, especially in relation to technical, delay and environmental issues. On a quarterly basis, Brazil’s supply in 2014 is expected to average 2.71 mb/d, 2.76 mb/d, 2.90 mb/d and 2.95 mb/d, respectively.