Latin America’s oil production is projected to increase by 0.16 mb/d over 2013 to average 4.93 mb/d in 2014, an upward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. The revision made Latin America the second top non-OPEC producing region after North America. Brazil is expected to support this growth, while other main countries in this region are expected to decline more or less in 2014 and Latin America Others will remain steady. On a quarterly basis, total supply in Latin America is seen to average 4.84 mb/d, 4.87 mb/d, 4.97 mb/d and 5.05 mb/d, respectively.
Argentina’s oil supply is expected to decline by 10 tb/d in 2014 to average 0.66 mb/d, steady from the previous MOMR. Argentina’s supply continued to be more or less stable despite a lack of new production, as per preliminary data. Colombia’s supply is expected to average 1.0 mb/d in 2014, representing a decline of 30 tb/d, unchanged from the previous month. Preliminary data indicates that Colombia’s oil supply averaged 1.0 mb/d during 1H14, a minor decline of 20 tb/d compared with the same period one year earlier, partly due to pipeline damage caused by security issues. Accordingly, the risk remains that the security situation could continue to impact supply in the coming period.
Brazil’s liquids supply is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in 2014 and average 2.84 mb/d, indicating a minor upward revision of 10 tb/d from the previous MOMR. The revision was introduced partly to adjust for updated production data in 2Q14, which turned out to be higher than expected. Brazil’s oil supply increased by 0.14 mb/d in 1H14 compared with the same period one year ago, and output is expected to increase by more than 0.17 mb/d in 2H14. According to official Petrobras news: “Production growth was mainly due to the volume increase produced by platform P-62, which started operation in May at Roncador field (Campos Basin) and the start-up of a new well connected to platform P-48, at Caratinga field, which has been producing at the pre-salt layer of the Campos Basin since the end of May, and which also contributed to the rise in production. The return of platform P-51 at Marlim Sul field in the same basin — after scheduled maintenance stoppage and the startup of the FPSO-Dynamic Producer Extended Well Test (EWT) at Iara Oeste, in Santos Basin — also contributed to this growth”. Based on the company’s news, “In total, eight new offshore wells in the Santos and Campos Basins started production in June.
Alongside them, 30 new subsea wells started operation in the first half of the year, twice the amount that started production in the same period last year. With the start of operation Polar Onyx, a PLSV (Pipe Laying Support Vessel) vessel type, on June 24, and the arrival of six more units by the end of 2014, the company’s capacity to interconnect new wells in the second half will be even greater.” Petrobras announced that oil production in the fields it operates in the Santos and Campos Basins pre-salt areas exceeded 500 tb/d – reaching 520 tb/d on 24 June — a new daily production record. Of this volume, 78% (406 tb/d) corresponds to Petrobras’ share, while the remainder comes from partner companies in various areas of production in the pre-salt layer. The production of 520 tb/d was thus achieved eight years after the first pre-salt oil discovery took place in 2006. Petrobras reached this historic landmark with only 25 production wells. The magnitude of this achievement can be better analysed by comparing the company’s own production record. On a quarterly basis, Brazil’s oil supply is seen to stand at 2.71 mb/d, 2.79 mb/d, 2.90 mb/d and 2.95 mb/d, respectively.
