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Russia Oil Supply - August 14

Source: OPEC 8/23/2014, Location: Asia

Russia’s oil production is forecast to increase by 50 tb/d to average 10.56 mb/d in 2014, unchanged from the previous MOMR. Expected growth in 2014 is at its lowest since 2008. Preliminary data indicates that Russia’s supply averaged 10.41 mb/d in July, lower by 160 tb/d from record June production. The risk to the forecast remains high, especially on price, decline rates, and technical and taxation developments. According to preliminary data, Russia’s supply averaged 10.57 mb/d during 1H14, indicating an increase of 110 tb/d compared with the same period of one year ago.

On 29 July 2014, the EU agreed to ban Russian access to EU financial markets, investment and oil industry technology for shale oil, deep water and Arctic projects. Rosneft was going to start exploratory drilling in one offshore area with ExxonMobil in August, but may have to delay some projects due to the new sanctions. Rosneft dominates Arctic exploration in Russia as well as tight oil projects. EU and US sanctions on Russian oil industries don’t seem to be affecting short-term oil supply. However, they are expected to create a big challenge for offshore deep water, Arctic and tight oil projects in the longer term. On a quarterly basis, Russia’s oil production is seen to average 10.59 mb/d, 10.55 mb/d, 10.55 mb/d and 10.55 mb/d, respectively.

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